Fulfill performance commitments by 2021
In 2021, the company realized revenue / return net profit / deducted non-home net profit of 44.77 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 15.7%, 10.6%, 3.2%, 8.7% lower than Huatai's expected net profit (expected: 402 million yuan), exceeding the performance commitment of China Energy Conservation acquisition (359 million yuan). The non-recurrent profit and loss mainly comes from the disposal of the equity of subsidiaries and the property rights of Guozhen Building and its ancillary equipment and facilities. We estimate that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 405x453,000,000 yuan. Considering that the synergy between the company and China Energy Saving Group is expected to be fully released, we will give 13x PE in 2022 (the average PE of the reference company's Wind in 2022 is 10.0x), with a target price of 7.54 yuan per share, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The growth of the scale of operation and engineering business drives the increase of revenue
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 4.477 billion yuan, of which 1) operating income 2.262 billion yuan, year-on-year + 25.1%, revenue accounted for + 3.8pp to 50.5%, the company's "light asset operation" scale further expanded; 2) project revenue of 2.037 billion yuan, year-on-year + 10.0%, revenue accounted for year-on-year-2.3pp to 45.5%; 3) equipment sales revenue of 158 million yuan, year-on-year-20.4%. The expense rate during 2021 was year-on-year-3.0pp to 14.3%, mainly due to the decrease in the cost of capital resulting in the financial expense rate year-on-year-1.8pp. As the cost of three main businesses increased faster than revenue growth, the company's gross profit margin was-4.5pp to 24.9% year-on-year. In 2021, the company accelerated the payback and optimized the payment. The operating net cash flow reached 928 million yuan, + 6.9% compared with the same period last year, and the cash flow further improved.
The total amount of new orders increases, and the synergy effect of the group can be expected.
In 2021, the size of the company's new operational / engineering orders is 1.8 billion yuan, which is-24.6% and 33.2% compared with the same period last year. The scale of new orders in the operational category is much smaller than that in the engineering category. Overall, the total new order size of the company's two types of business in 2021 is 1.82 billion yuan. Year-on-year + 23.8% (2020: 1.47 billion yuan). Among the company's controlling shareholders, the Energy Saving Group (unlisted) is the only central enterprise in China that focuses on energy conservation and environmental protection. Energy-saving Guozhen is expected to give full play to the resource advantages and financing channel advantages of the controlling shareholders in the future, combined with the original operating efficiency of the company. synergy is expected.
Maintain the "overweight" rating
As the engineering business is greatly affected by market fluctuations, we reduce the gross profit margin of the engineering business, and then lower the forecast of 2022-2023 net profit of homing to 453 million yuan (the previous value is 492 million yuan). The net profit of homing in 2024 is 495 million yuan, corresponding to 0.58 EPS 0.65 million yuan in 2022-2024, with reference to the average PE of comparable companies in 2022. Considering that the synergy between the company and China Energy Saving Group is expected to be fully released, the company is given a target price of 7.54 yuan per share in 2022 13xPE (previous value: 8.04 yuan per share, based on 14x PE in 2021) to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the project schedule is not as expected, the labor cost is higher than expected, and the gross profit margin is lower than expected.
