This report is read as follows:
The financial and real estate sector has rebounded significantly since the end of 159940, and will still give priority to benefit in a market dominated by defensive thinking.
Since December 2021, the trend of the financial and real estate sector has been significantly stronger than the mainstream wide-base index such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, with obvious excess returns, reflecting a significant defensive nature in the context of a sharp decline in the market as a whole. Steady growth and continuous relaxation of real estate policy are the core driving forces to promote the strengthening of the big financial sector. Looking back, the financial real estate plate represented by banks and real estate has higher odds and odds, and has an obvious comparative advantage, and the market probability is still not over.
Through the quantitative model of industry fundamentals, we select net interest margin and economic climate index to describe the degree of banking boom, and select liquidity expectation, residual liquidity and central bank money to describe the degree of commercial prosperity of bonds. Select the two dimensions of ten-year treasury bond yield and comprehensive liquidity in the financial market to comprehensively construct the leading index of insurance boom. The comprehensive liquidity index of financial market is constructed to judge the changes of monetary policy to describe the degree of real estate boom. From the results, long banks, brokerages, real estate, the financial real estate sector as a whole showed significant optimism.
CSI all refers to the financial real estate index: it covers the combination of finance and real estate in all directions, and the market capitalization is mainly distributed by large market capitalization. From the performance between the internal plates of the index, there has been a significant differentiation in the past two years, in which the insurance sector continues to lag behind, causing a certain drag on the index performance, and the heavyweight sector banks have performed best in the past two years. The excellent performance of real estate since the beginning of this year has also made a significant positive contribution to the index.
Index investment value: according to the industry prosperity reflected by the index quarterly revenue growth index, the industry boom has returned, and the revenue growth rate has improved step by step since the epidemic. The profitability of the index is stable and the dividend rate is significantly higher than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. From the perspective of time series and cross-section comparison, the index valuation is low, the margin of safety of valuation is high and there is broad room for improvement in the future.
Risk hints: 1. This conclusion is only derived from the quantitative model and does not coincide with the strategic point of view of the research. 2. 2. The conclusion is mainly based on historical data, and the market environment may change in the future.