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铜价还要涨?秘鲁一铜矿进入紧急状态,必和必拓下调智利铜矿产量预期

Will copper prices continue to rise? A copper mine in Peru entered a state of emergency, and BHP Billiton lowered its Chilean copper production forecast

華爾街見聞 ·  Apr 21, 2022 19:32

Protests have broken out in several copper mines in Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, with two large copper mines suspended and a state of emergency in one area.

Peruvian Prime Minister Fernando Torres announced on Wednesday thatA state of emergency has been imposed in the vicinity of Southern Copper's Cuajone copper mine.At present, protests across Peru have attacked a number of large local copper mines, disrupting 20% of the country's copper production.

Despite the rise in international copper prices, residents in the vicinity of the copper mine were dissatisfied with the fact that they did not benefit from it, and protested by shutting down water and closing roads. Since this yearCommunity residents launched a number of protests at Cuajone Copper Mine, Minmetals Resources' Las Bambas Copper Mine and Glencore's Antapaccay Copper Mine. In addition, BHP Group Ltd's Escondida copper mine has also been protested by environmentalists.

Cuajone suspended operations on Feb. 28, when residents of the community near Cuajone shut down the water supply to the mine, demanding economic compensation and distribution of future profits. In addition, Southern Copper delayed $850 million in investment in local expansion projects.

Castillo's government has been reluctant to use a state of emergency to crack down on protestsHowever, negotiations between the government and the community reached an impasse and no agreement was reached.Peruvian Prime Minister Fernando Torres said on Wednesday that the government had run out of patience and that it was obviously unreasonable for the community to ask for $5 billion, so we declared a state of emergency.

In addition to Cuajone, Las Bambas announced a suspension of operations on Wednesday after nearby residents broke into the mine.

According to Peruvian government statistics, Peru produced 2.3 million tons of copper in 2021.Of this total, Las Bambas produced nearly 300000 tonnes of copper, while Cuajone produced 170000 tonnes, accounting for 20 per cent of national copper production.

Also on Wednesday, protests against the expansion plan broke out at Glencore's Antapaccay.A source said the demonstrations did not block or block a transportation route shared by Antapaccay, Las Bambas and Constancia copper mines.

On Thursday, BHP cut its forecast for Chilean copper production following protests from workers and environmentalists over the operation of BHP Group Ltd's Escondida project, as well as labour shortages caused by the epidemic.

Earlier this month, Chile, the world's largest copper producer, filed a lawsuit over environmental damage caused by BHP's operation in the Atacama salt marshes, as well as roads blocked by trade unions rejecting contract agreements and a surge in COVID-19 infection near Escondida.

It is worth mentioning that Escondida is the largest copper mine in the world. Escondida is expected to produce between 1 million and 1.03 million tons of copper this year, lower than the previous forecast of 1.02 million to 1.08 million tons.As a result, BHP's total copper production is forecast to fall to between 1.57 million and 1.62 million tons. So far, BHP has produced 1.112 million tonnes of copper this fiscal year, down 10 per cent from last year.

Goldman Sachs Group analyst Nicholas Snowdon team recently released a report saying that the fundamentals of the copper market have been tightened. On the one hand, demand from major economies in Europe and Asia remained strong, while production in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, was disrupted, with copper production well below expectations and nearly half of the supply affected.

Goldman Sachs Group predicts that as the gap between supply and demand may not be bridged in the short term, copper prices may reach 13000 US dollars / tonne in the coming year.

Antapaccay

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