Following the energy storm and metal storm, the fertilizer storm has swept through, and rice has no choice but to stand in the front line.

Russia and Belarus, as major producers of various fertilisers, have restricted exports to other regions after Western sanctions, and reduced supply has been the main cause of soaring prices.

Farmers are extremely vulnerable to rising fertilizer prices, and in order to save costs, they will choose to reduce the use of chemical fertilizer. However, chemical fertilizers such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium will provide a lot of nutrients for high-yield rice, so in this case, rice yield will be directly threatened, and the subsequent price rise may be inevitable, and almost half of the world's population depends on rice as the staple food.

According to Bloomberg, the International Rice Research Institute warned that due to soaring fertilizer pricesNext season's rice harvest may fall by 10 per cent, equivalent to about 36 million tons of rice, enough to feed 500m people.

Humnath Bhandari, senior agricultural economist of the Institute, pointed out thatThe 10% decline in global rice production is a "very conservative estimate".. In response, he believes that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, fertilizer prices remain high and the supply is limited, then the reduction in rice production may be even more serious, which may trigger a global food crisis.

Nguyen Binh Phong, the owner of a fertilizer store in Vietnam's Jianjiang province, says the cost of fertiliser has tripled in the past year. Because of rising prices, local farmers have to reduce their use of chemical fertilizers by 20%.

Phong mentioned:

When farmers reduce their use of chemical fertilizer, they accept the result that they will make a lower profit.

Bloomberg analysis said that the world may still be in the early stages of the food crisis, and as farmers use less because of rising fertilizer prices, the yield of various crops may decline, so the situation is likely to worsen next year.

As mentioned earlier on Wall Street, the last fertiliser ship sailing from Russia to Brazil may be unloaded on May 5, after which no one knows where Brazil will get fertilizer supplies.

However, it is worth noting that for a long time, Asian countries have maintained social order by stabilizing rice prices, and some countries have also provided generous chemical fertilizer subsidies to farmers to achieve high yields. India will spend $20 billion this year to protect farmers from soaring fertiliser prices, higher than the $14 billion budget before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

And from another point of view, reducing the use of chemical fertilizer is also beneficial.

The International Rice Research Institute points out that excessive use of chemical fertilizers is common in rice seed production areas, so soaring fertilizer prices are also prompting local farmers to use resources more efficiently. The Institute is working with farmers to achieve the best results, including the combination of organic chemical inputs to improve soil health while maintaining yields.