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增长停滞用户流失,奈飞被华尔街抛弃了?

Has Netflix been abandoned by Wall Street due to stagnant growth and loss of users?

智通財經 ·  Apr 20, 2022 21:35  · Insights

Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics

After Netflix Inc's really "ugly" earnings report was announced, all major Wall Street banks lowered their target prices for the stock.

$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $The results for the first quarter of 2022 released after Tuesday's trading in the United States once again came as a surprise, prompting Wall Street banks to lower their price targets for the stock. When US stocks opened on Wednesday, Netflix Inc fell more than 30 per cent.

Netflix Inc's total revenue in the first quarter was $7.87 billion, up 9.8% from a year earlier, but below market expectations of $7.93 billion, according to the results. Diluted earnings per share were $3.53, down nearly 6% from $3.75 a year earlier, but higher than analysts' expectations of $2.89.

On the other hand, the indicator of global net additional payment users, which investors are most concerned about, showed unexpected negative growth.The global loss of 200000 paying subscribers in the first quarter was the first negative since 2011, while Netflix Inc had expected an increase of 2.5 million. In addition, Netflix Inc's guidance for the second quarter is also disappointing. The company expects the number of paying users worldwide to decline by 2 million in the second quarter, while the market expects an increase of 2.4 million.

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By region, the number of subscribers decreased by 640000 in North America, 300000 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, 350000 in Latin America and 1.09 million in the Asia-Pacific region.

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Netflix Inc said in a letter to shareholders that "revenue growth has slowed significantly". The entry of traditional media has led to increased competition in the streaming industry, household penetration is already relatively high and more than 100m households around the world share accounts with others, and inflation erodes people's budget allocation for non-essential items such as subscription services. as well as the temporary withdrawal from the Russian market and the closure of user accounts have adversely affected revenue growth.

After Netflix Inc's really "ugly" earnings report was announced, all major Wall Street banks lowered their target prices for the stock. The following are the views of some investment banks on the stock:

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft lowered Netflix Inc's target price to $300 from $465 and maintained a "hold" rating on the stock.

Analysts said that although the first-quarter results were lower than market expectations, Netflix Inc management was making a strategic and tactical shift to focus on "how best to monetize the phenomenon of different families sharing the same account". And launch subscription services including ads. Given that Netflix Inc is now "in a flat part of the demand curve in most western markets", these measures will be needed to re-accelerate growth. Analysts sayNetflix Inc is expected to accelerate growth again in the second half of 2023 and 2024.

Stifel analyst Scott Devitt lowered Netflix Inc's target price to $300 from $460 and downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy".

"all good growth stories eventually come to an end," analysts said. Analysts pointed out that Netflix Inc's first-quarter results and second-quarter performance guidance were "disappointing", with negative user growth in three of the company's four major regions.

Analysts say Netflix Inc still needs to address some longer-term problems, including increased competition, the possibility that core markets have matured and the prevalence of shared accounts, which could be a drag on its growth. Analysts say subscription services including ads and improving the monetization of shared accounts are still in the early stages of development and will not be possible until the second half of 2023.

Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion lowered Netflix Inc's target price from $562 to $293 and downgraded the stock from "overweight" to "neutral".

Analysts pointed out that Netflix Inc lost 200000 subscribers in the first quarter, significantly lower than the 2.5 million increase expected by the market. The company's management pointed out a series of problems affecting the future growth of subscribers. Including the macro environment, shared accounts and increased competition.

Netflix Inc's user loss will continue into the second quarter, and its revenue growth is likely to slow into 2023, analysts said. "this is a low-growth, low-visibility model that prompts us to wait and see".

Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar lowered Netflix Inc's target price to $275 from $380 and maintained a "wait-and-see" rating on the stock.

Analysts said that even the most pessimistic forecasts did not expect negative user growth in three of Netflix Inc's four major regions, and that such negative user growth could occur in the second quarter. Analysts also pointed out that Netflix Inc himself does not seem to be optimistic about the recent growth of profit margins, saying it depends on the re-acceleration of revenue growth.

Pivotal Research lowered Netflix Inc's target price to $235 from $550and downgraded the stock from "buy" to "sell".

Analysts said Netflix Inc cut his forecasts for user growth and profitability in response to "shocking" subscriber data in the first quarter and weak second-quarter subscriber guidelines.

Analysts believe that Netflix Inc's consideration of launching a low-cost subscription service with advertising is a negative impact, which "reduces the value of brands and products compared with the current good consumer experience." Analysts point out that the decline in profitability may make the stock "unpopular with the investment community" during a period of rising interest rates.

In additionDoug Anmuth, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co, downgraded Netflix Inc from "overweight" to "neutral" with a target price of $3000.UBS analyst John Hodulik downgraded Netflix Inc from "buy" to "neutral" with a target price of $355. Atlantic Equities analyst Hamilton Faber downgraded Netflix Inc from "overweight" to "neutral" with a target price of $280.

Edit / Corrine

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