From January to March this year, the average value of manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI was 57.8 and 58.2 respectively. The average of January-April NAHB real estate market index and University of Michigan consumer confidence index were 80 and 63.8 respectively.

Apart from the fact that the consumer confidence index has always been weak due to high inflation, other indicators of economic sentiment are still significantly above the boom-bust line.

In addition, as shown in figure 1, total US sales and inventories are still at an all-time high year-on-year, stronger than in 2009-2011 after the financial crisis. The long-valued comprehensive leading index (CLI) has stabilized slightly from February to March this year after falling in June last year.

Three questions are discussed in this paper: what is the momentum (growth trend) of American economic growth after the epidemic? What is the momentum (the intensity of economic growth)? The momentum and momentum logic and extent of the US economic slowdown in the second half of this year and recession next year.

What do you think of the resilience of the American economy after the epidemic? Four o'clock kinetic energy.1)Financial transfer payment and service consumption are blocked, and cumulative savings increase greatly to support "wayward" consumption.2)The removal of inventory of real estate after the epidemic has promoted the current replenishment of real estate inventory.3)The newly released infrastructure dividend4)Corporate capital expenditure driven by high profit margins.

The momentum of post-epidemic recovery (the intensity of economic growth) is viewed from the flexibility of US economic indicators.After the epidemic, many economic indicators in the United States are quite flexible, but they are divided into three categories:

1)Caused by a low base, it often results from a pulsed recovery after supply suppression. After the initial rapid repair of such indicators, the elasticity will be significantly weakened, the most typical is the industrial sector capacity utilization and so on.

2)High elasticity contributed by the price factor: a nominal indicator that rises rapidly with inflation after the 2021Q3. As long as inflation cools, such indicators are likely to slow down.

3)High elasticity driven by high availability: higher demand elasticity and less supply elasticity constraints, such as personal durable goods consumption, post-epidemic real estate sales and employment data. However, the investment flexibility of the enterprise sector after the epidemic is weak, which may be related to the uncertainty of the epidemic and the rising slope of inflation and labor costs in the United States after the epidemic is significantly higher than that in previous recovery stages.

In fact, the upward pulse of various economic indicators after the epidemic is an important momentum of the recovery of the US economy in the past few quarters. Looking back, there is still some upward flexibility in personal service consumption, but the space is limited, so there is not much action in the US economy.

Us economy: momentum has declined; momentum is about to weaken.

1) the momentum of the US economy is already declining: growth is slowing.The repair of each type of economic behavior needs to resonate with the recovery of employment. although the post-epidemic flexibility and rhythm of different sectors are different, we can use employment data to measure the "resilience" of the overall recovery of the US economy, that is, economic momentum. At present, most of the economic activities in the three sectors are no longer flexible, except for personal service consumption, which still benefits from the cumulative savings and unsealing process after the epidemic. This means that the employment absorption capacity of various industries in the United States is weakening in the future, and then the momentum of US economic growth is bound to weaken.

2) it is expected that the annualized rate of Q1 and Q3 will turn negative in 2023, while the actual GDP will slow down almost quarter by quarter until 2023Q4 drops to 0.2%. 3) structural estimates: personal consumption and corporate capital expenditure fell to zero in 2023, while real estate investment turned negative.