In traditional energy, not only natural gas has become popular, but also the upward thrust of coal should not be underestimated.

According to Bloomberg, Australian coal company Whitehaven Coal saidGlobal coal trade has been disrupted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so the rise in coal prices should continue into next year.

Whitehaven said in a report released on Wednesday that major customers, including Japan and South Korea, are avoiding new commodity contracts with Russia, and that the lack of alternatives is putting pressure on the market. To this end, the company said that from this year to next year, "heating energy and metallurgical energy prices are expected to be favorable support."

Whitehaven noted that the average price of benchmark thermal coal in Newcastle Port in the first three months of this year was US $264 per tonne, higher than the price in the fourth quarter of 2021.43% higher. As of Tuesday, the April average price was $302 a tonne, while Newcastle's May contract for thermal coal futuresIncreased by about 1/3 this month.。

Paul Flynn, CEO of the company, revealed on a conference call on Wednesday:

The loss of 110 million tons (coal) in seaborne trade cannot be without impact. This will only add more pressure to the already very tight market.

Flynn also mentionedAlthough consumers continue to accept Russian coal previously signed, Russian energy is specifically excluded from some new procurement contracts.

Wall Street mentioned earlier that after the European Union and the Group of Seven announced sanctions on Russian coal.Global coal prices may be affected.

Take the European Union as an example. Assuming that the EU continues to impose an embargo on Russian coal, Europe will have to significantly increase its imports from Colombia, South Africa, Indonesia and Australia, and this "shift" will force major coal importers such as India to switch to Russia.

This series of processes could cause Russia and other exporters to change their export destinations due to logistics and transport restrictions, which could lead to a decline in total global coal production, pushing up coal prices for all consumers.

And even if this "shift" is successfully completed, all countries will have to import coal from farther away, which could push up freight costs. For commodities such as coal, transport costs account for a large proportion of final consumer prices, so terminal prices are likely to rise sharply.

And take into account the situation of coal itself. Coal from different countries varies greatly in terms of energy, volatile organic compounds, ash and other impurities. Most generators are designed to use specific grades of coal, so once replaced by imperfect alternatives, it will increase the fuel cost of all generators, thereby raising electricity prices.