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高油价谁笑的最开心?沙特今年经济增速有望翻倍

Who laughs happiest with high oil prices? Saudi Arabia's economic growth is expected to double this year

華爾街見聞 ·  Apr 20, 2022 19:26

Among the many pessimistic expectations, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Middle East, is one of a few economies that are expected to "go against the tide".

Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the economies of many countries have been affected.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year in its latest Global Economic Outlook report.

However, among the many pessimistic expectations, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Middle East, is expected to "go against the tide" in a few economies.

According to IMF's forecast, high oil prices are expected to push the Saudi economy into a high-speed growth model. IMF has set Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for this year at 7.6%, 2.8% higher than the previous forecast. That is more than double Saudi Arabia's 3.2 per cent GDP growth last year.

"We have raised our forecast for Saudi Arabia's economic growth this year by 2.8 percentage points, reflecting an increase in the country's oil production under the OPEC+ agreement and higher non-oil output than originally expected," IMF said in its report.

In addition to IMF, some well-known industry institutions are also optimistic that Saudi Arabia is expected to make a fortune in the geopolitical upheaval.

According to a recent report from Capital Macro, although global oil demand will be 480000 b / d lower than previously expected due to the economic growth slowdown caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic, the group has raised its production forecast for Saudi Arabia.

Saudi oil production rose 26.7 per cent year-on-year to 10.3 million barrels a day in March, ranking it as the country's fastest growth in nearly 20 years, and the Saudi economy is forecast to grow by 10 per cent this year and 5.3 per cent in 2023, according to the report.

At the same time, according to the Arab News, James Swanston, a macro economist at Capital Investment, is optimistic that Saudi Arabia will further increase its oil production in the future, which is likely to be more than the increase stipulated in the current OPEC+ agreement.

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