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祖名股份(003030):全国化扩张持续进行 盈利能力短期受限

Ancestral shares (003030): nationalized expansion continues to be short-term limited profitability

西南證券 ·  Apr 19, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Event: the company released the 2021 report and the first quarterly report in 2022, realizing revenue of 1.34 billion yuan (+ 9.1%) and net profit of 55.72 million yuan (- 44.8%) in 2021, of which 21Q4 realized revenue of 370 million yuan (+ 12.1%) in a single quarter and net profit of 12.91 million yuan (- 45.8%). At the same time, it is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 1.50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. 2022Q1 realized revenue of 340 million yuan (+ 11.1%) and net profit of 7.76 million yuan (- 37.1%).

Hand in hand in the 2022 Asian Games, the product structure continues to upgrade. 1. In terms of categories, the income of fresh soybean products reached 890 million yuan, an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year, mainly driven by the increase in tonnage prices, focusing on Mai series tofu using Japan's fully automatic standardized production line and organic products produced by organic soybeans in Northeast China; the income of plant protein drinks reached 210 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% over the same period last year, and high value-added whole soybean milk conformed to the trend of low-sugar, low-fat and healthy consumption. In addition, the company will become the 2022 Asian Games bean products supplier, brand strength will continue to improve. 2. From the perspective of different channels, the income of distribution model, direct sales model and merchant super model is 860 million yuan (+ 11.8%), 140 million yuan (+ 33%) and 320 million yuan (- 7.1%) respectively. By the end of 2021, the company had a total of 1453 dealers, a net increase of 10.

The cost of raw materials has risen and profitability has declined. 1. The overall gross profit margin is 26.4%, down 6.8pp from the same period last year. Mainly due to the rising prices of raw materials and operating costs, the company is still unable to fully cover the cost pressure by raising the prices of some products. 2. In terms of expense rate, the sales expense rate was 14.6%, down 0.6 ppm from the same period last year; the management expense rate and R & D expense rate were 4.8% and 0.7% respectively, which remained basically stable; and the financial expense rate was 0.4%, which decreased by 0.9pp compared with the same period last year, mainly due to changes in exchange rate and loan interest rate. The overall net interest rate was 4.2%, down 4.1pp from the same period last year, mainly due to the low base of various costs and expenses affected by the national preferential policies in 2020, and returned to normal in 21 years.

The expansion of the whole country continues, and the leading advantage of bean products continues to consolidate. The company continues to promote the process of national expansion, and has successively signed cooperation framework agreements with Nanjing Fruit Food, Guizhou Longyuan Shengdou and Taiyuan Golden Soybean Foods, and will invest 300 million yuan in the construction of soybean products production base in Wuhan. 1. Through management output and mode grafting to enhance the influence of the invested enterprises, the company can also make use of the existing resources of local brands to quickly expand new markets; local well-known brands + ancestral brands work together to lead the development of the bean products industry. 2. In the future, we will continue to expand in different places with the mode of equity investment, give priority to the layout of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta and provincial capital cities in central China, continue to consolidate the company's leading position in the bean products industry, and the logic of medium-and long-term development has been further strengthened.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 77.3 million yuan, 86.96 million yuan and 97.45 million yuan respectively, the EPS is 0.62,0.70,0.78 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 38 times, 34 times and 30 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: soybean prices continue to rise; the project landed or fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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