The headlines followed by the global financial media last night and this morning are as follows:

1. IMF downgrades the forecast of global economic growth to 3.6% this year. High inflation will last longer.

2. Fannie Mae: the US economy may have a "moderate recession" next year.

3. Motorcycle: if the European Union immediately imposed a total embargo on Russian crude oil, the oil price could reach 185 US dollars.

4. IMF: war makes it more urgent and necessary for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates

Chicago Fed President Evans expects interest rates to rise above the neutral level.

6. Musk is willing to bid for Twitter for $10 billion to $15 billion out of his own pocket.

IMF downgrades its forecast of global economic growth to 3.6% this year. High inflation will last longer.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed its latest quarterly global economic outlook on Tuesday. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the IMF lowered its global economic growth outlook and raised its inflation forecast.

IMF cut its 2022 global economic growth forecast from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent and its 2023 global economic growth forecast from 3.8 per cent to 3.6 per cent.

The IMF downgrade reflects the direct impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on Russia and Ukraine, as well as global spillover effects, arguing that rising inflation "will last longer". The supply shortages related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will amplify existing inflationary pressures, resulting in dirty prices of food, energy and metals; the supply shortages are expected to last until 2023.

IMF predicted that economic growth and inflation forecasts are "highly uncertain" and that the imbalance between supply and demand could lead to rising inflation and slower economic growth. The growing risk of runaway inflation expectations will prompt central banks to take more aggressive tightening measures. With the exception of commodity exports that have benefited from soaring energy and food prices, the medium-term outlook for all economies has fallen.

Fannie Mae: us economy may have a "moderate recession" next year

Fannie Mae believes that, already dragged down by high inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Fed's rate hike will lead to a further slowdown in the US economy, with a "moderate contraction" likely in the second half of 2023.

"We continue to see multiple drivers of economic growth throughout 2022, but the need to curb inflation and other economic indicators such as the recent inverted Treasury yield curve have led us to significantly lower our expectations for economic growth in 2023."$FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOC (FNMA.US) $Chief economist Doug Duncan said in the announcement.

The new forecast includes a "moderate recession, but we don't expect it to be as large or as long as it was in 2008," Duncan said. "

In its April economic and property outlook report, Fannie Mae said it now expects home sales to fall 7.4% this year and 9.7% in 2023. House price growth will slow from 20% in the first quarter of this year to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Xiao Mo: if the European Union immediately imposed a total embargo on Russian crude oil prices could reach 185 US dollars.

If it is serious for the EU to stop importing Russian oil, it may have to pay some price.

JPMorgan Chase & Co warned that an immediate total embargo on Rosneft could create a supply shortfall of more than 4 million barrels a day, which would push the price of Brent crude up by about 65 per cent to $185 a barrel. Analyst Natasha Kaneva said there was not enough demand or time to redirect the oil to India.

However, Kaneva added that phasing out Rosneft within about four months, similar to that for Russian coal supplies, could be successful without significantly affecting prices.

The bank's main scenario is much more conservative, with Russian supply to Europe estimated to fall by only half, with supply falling by about 2.1 million barrels a day by the end of the year.

In fact, the process of abandoning Rosneft has been slower than initially expected. The bank expects Russian crude oil exports to fall by 1.5 million barrels a day this month, 25 per cent less than originally forecast. It takes time to withdraw from agreements with Russian companies-usually long-term contracts.

IMF: war makes it more urgent and necessary for the Fed to raise interest rates

Pierre-Olivier Gournchas, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said, "the Fed began to tighten its monetary policy in advance even before February 24-now the war adds another layer to these inflationary pressures and makes the cycle of interest rate increases announced by the Fed more urgent and necessary. "

"it is necessary to curb the cycle of rising prices leading to higher wages and expected inflation," he said at an online press conference. So we think the Fed's response is appropriate.

"even before the war broke out, inflation had become an obvious and real danger in many countries," he said.

Although Gourinchas believes that the euro zone faces "very significant downside risks" as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of IMF research, said there was no recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction) in IMF's baseline forecast for the European Union.

Chicago Fed President Evans expects interest rates to rise above neutral

Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said interest rates could rise above levels that neither dampen nor accelerate the economy, depending on whether inflation cools as expected.

"maybe we will exceed the neutral interest rate, which is my expectation," Evans said at a seminar hosted by the New York Economic Club on Tuesday.

Fed officials estimate the neutral interest rate at around 2.4%. Like other Fed officials, Evans also expressed support for raising the target range of the main policy rate from 0.25% Mel 0.5% to about 2.25% Mel 2.5% by the end of the year. Fed officials, who will meet from May 3 to 4, have said raising interest rates by 0.5 percentage points will be one of the topics under discussion.

The Fed expects shrinking tables and raising interest rates to ease price pressures, which are now at their highest level in four decades.

Musk is willing to bid for Twitter for $10 billion to $15 billion out of his own pocket.

The media quoted two people familiar with the matter as saying that Elon Musk was willing to invest $10 billion to $15 billion in cash for the acquisition of Twitter and planned to launch an offer in about 10 days.

The total equity of joint investors will exceed that of Mr Musk, but Mr Musk will be the largest single shareholder, according to one of the people familiar with the matter.

Reported that Musk to find supporters seems to be more difficult than expected. Mr Musk may also consider borrowing from his 9.1 per cent stake, which could raise billions more.

In addition, Musk also hired Morgan Stanley to take advantage of$Twitter (TWTR.US) $Reraise $10 billion, similar to traditional leveraged buyouts.

Previously, some analysts said that Musk did not seem to be able to get help from private equity firms in the acquisition of Twitter.