Global macro

• Before Tuesday's trading, the three major stock index futures of US stocksGo up slightly

• European stocks generally weakened on Tuesday

• Brad: don't rule out raising the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points at the May meeting

St. Louis Fed Chairman James Bullard, a hawkish Fed official, said he did not rule out raising the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points at the May meeting. But he also pointed out that raising interest rates by 75 basis points is not his "basic view", but over the past six months, he has often outperformed other Fed policy makers on tightening monetary policy.

• The yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose to 3% for the first time since early 2019

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to a new high of 2.909 per cent, the highest level since late 2018. The yield on 30-year treasury bonds rose to 3 per cent for the first time since early 2019.

• The probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May is 88.8%.

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points by May is 11.2%, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 88.8%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points by June is 0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 8.2%, the probability of raising interest rates by 100bp is 67.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 125bp is 24.1%.

• Us stocks Q1 earnings season is worrying! Morgan Stanley warns that the company's performance is facing inflation "headwind"

Morgan Stanley strategist said recently that rising costs are gradually eroding profit margins, while price pressures caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have hit consumer demand, and the positive impact of inflation on the earnings growth of US listed companies has peaked. In a report released on Monday, strategists at Morgan Stanley, led by Michael Wilson, said there were signs that the first-quarter earnings season was "likely to be more disappointing than expected", particularly in terms of forward expectations and guidance.

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: Russia intends to resume strategic stability dialogue with the United States at any time

According to satellite news, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Riabkov said that Russia intends to resume strategic stability dialogue with the United States at any time, but there is no intention of the United States at present.

• The situation in Donbass continues to heat up, and the Ukrainian representative: Russia is focused on its next phase of special military operations and has no time for negotiations.

On the 19th, local time, Porto Liak, an adviser to the Director of the Office of the President of Ukraine and a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, said that it is difficult to say when the next direct negotiations will be achieved. Porto Liak believes that Russia is focusing on the second phase of the special military operation currently being carried out in Donbass, so it has no time for negotiations. Ukraine believes that Russian troops have begun to attack the Donbass region, and the Russian side said that the operation in eastern Ukraine is being carried out in an orderly manner.

• Two oil futures fell 2.5%.

Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fell 2.5% on the day, to as low as $110.18 per barrel and $104.81 per barrel, respectively.

• Standard Chartered: the supply and demand of the oil market is balanced in the second quarter, and the risk tends to be surplus

Analysts such as Standard Chartered Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell said in their latest outlook that there was a balance between supply and demand for oil this quarter and that the risk was skewed towards excess. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, there was already a supply buffer in the market. Geo-conflicts, coupled with rising oil prices and the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures, have suppressed demand forecasts. Demand in the second quarter is expected to grow by 594000 b / d compared with a modest increase, which may even be lower than expected. Russian oil production is expected to fall by 2.45 million barrels a day in the second quarter, although the decline may be lower than expected.

Hot news

• Tesla, Inc. Shanghai factory officially resumed work and production today.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $8000 employees of the Shanghai factory arrived on duty and officially resumed work and production today.

• Apollo Global Management is considering bidding for Twitter

According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said that Apollo Global Management is considering a bid.$Twitter (TWTR.US) $. Earlier, Musk offered to buy Twitter for $43 billion. Apollo has discussed possible deals to support the acquisition of Twitter, offering equity or debt to other bidders such as Musk or Thoma Bravo LP, a private equity firm, to support the acquisition, while also considering a potential partnership between its subsidiary Yahoo and Twitter, but there is no guarantee that Twitter will accept it. Twitter is expected to reject Mr. Musk's offer in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Mercedes-Benz will recall nearly 150000 ‬ vehicles in the United States

According to a notice from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration$Daimler-Benz (ADR) (DMLRY.US) $147749 ‬ vehicles will be recalled in the United States.

• Johnson & Johnson's revenue in the first quarter increased by 5% compared with the same period last year, and the performance guidance for 2022 was lowered.

$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) $Announce results for the first quarter of 2022. According to the results, Johnson & Johnson's Q1 revenue was $23.426 billion, below market expectations, up 5% from a year earlier; net profit was $5.149 billion, down 16.9% from a year earlier; and diluted earnings per share were $1.93, compared with $2.32 a year earlier. By region, US sales were $11.414 billion, up 2.7 per cent from a year earlier, while international sales were $12.012 billion, up 7.2 per cent from a year earlier. Johnson & Johnson expects sales (excluding COVID-19 's vaccine income) to be $94.8 billion to $95.8 billion in 2022, up 3.8 per cent from a year earlier, compared with a previous forecast of $95.9 billion to $96.9 billion, an increase of 5.0 per cent.

• The American campus community company rose nearly 13% before trading, and the media said Blackstone Group Inc would buy the company.

$American Campus Community Company (ACC.US) $Us stocks rose nearly 13 per cent before trading after media reports said Blackstone Group Inc would buy AmericanCampus for $12.8 billion, including debt.

• Lockheed Martin Corp's US stock fell more than 2% before trading, and its full-year performance forecast was slightly lower than market expectations.

$Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.US) $Net sales in the first quarter were $15 billion, with a market estimate of $15.55 billion. First-quarter earnings per share were $6.44, compared with $6.56 a year earlier. Lockheed Martin Corp still expects net sales for the full fiscal year to be about $66 billion, while the market estimates $66.13 billion. Lockheed Martin Corp still expects earnings per share of about $26.70 for the full fiscal year, compared with a market estimate of $26.77.

• TSMC plans to subsidize employees to buy their own shares

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $It was confirmed today that the relevant details such as the proportion of subsidies for employees to buy shares in their own companies are still to be decided by the board of directors, mainly in the hope that employees' salaries will be more diversified and that employees can share the fruits of the company's operations. It is reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd expects to recruit more than 8000 employees this year, and will fully implement a "stock purchase subsidy" for more than 50,000 employees. Employees can deduct a certain amount from their salary to buy shares in the company, and the company will provide part of the subsidy. It is reported that the proportion of the subsidy is less than 15%, and it is expected that it will be implemented in July.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Li Auto Inc. releases first Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) report

$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $Today, the first Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) report is released, which comprehensively demonstrates the achievements and contributions of enterprises in five areas: green operation, innovative products, compliance regulation, inclusive care and warm society. In 2021, Li Auto Inc. responded to the national carbon peak carbon neutralization target with actions such as self-developed extended range technology, so as to promote the sustainable development of the enterprise in the future. In 2021, Li Auto Inc. invested 3.29 billion yuan in innovative research and development. the main achievements of R & D and innovation include: self-development of the next generation Zengcheng electric system and high-voltage pure electric technology, full-stack self-developed driving assistance system, and intelligent cockpit system that provides comprehensive solutions for in-vehicle interaction. By the end of 2021, Li Auto Inc. had obtained a total of 1171 patents and registered and approved 494 domestic trademarks.

• Li Auto Inc. CEO Li Xiang: automobile brands should pay attention to the survival of small and medium-sized parts suppliers

Ideal CEO Li said on his social platform account that car brands should not only solve their own immediate parts supply problems, but also analyze and investigate the survival problems of small and medium-sized parts suppliers, and provide decisive assistance. Li Xiang said: "in this round of O'Micron 's epidemic, all car brands have to solve the problem of their immediate parts supply." it is also necessary to do a special management job: to analyze in advance the survival of small and medium-sized parts suppliers, including level 3, level 4, and level 5, that you never need to manage before. In short, analyze and check in advance, cooperate with primary and secondary suppliers, and the assistance will support decisive action. "

• Geely commercial vehicles plan to introduce external capital and appear on the market in the future or as a whole

The reporter learned from a person familiar with the matter$Geely Automobile (ADR) (GELYY.US) $The commercial vehicle group has considered listing as a whole and is planning to introduce outside investors to the community. Fan Xianjun, president of Geely Commercial vehicle Group, has previously said that Geely commercial vehicles have some arrangements in the capital market and "do not rule out the possibility of IPO".

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

A reminder of macroscopic examples in the United States

April nineteenth

20:30 Total number of housing starts in March in the United States, total number of permits in March in the United States

21:45 US President Joe Biden holds a conference call on Russia and Ukraine

April 20th

00:05 Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Evans delivered a speech

02:45 US President Joe Biden delivers a speech on infrastructure

API crude Oil inventory for the week from 04:00 to 15 April