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东方海外国际(00316.HK):受益贸易需求 深化规模优势

Dongfanghai International (00316.HK): Benefiting from trade demand and deepening scale advantages

興業證券 ·  Apr 19, 2022 18:02  · Researches

The company's revenue growth rate for FY2021 reached 105.5%, with a dividend rate of 70% in 2021: the company's revenue for 2021 was US$16.83 billion, up 105.5% year on year; profit before tax was US$7.337 billion, up 703.1% year on year; net profit was US$7.128 billion, up 689.4% year on year. Global ports continued to be congested in 2021, and revenue rose rapidly due to increased demand for company services. Gross margin hit a new high of 48.6%, an increase of 29.2 percentage points over 2020. The company plans to pay a final dividend of $2.61 per share and a second special dividend of $0.69 per share.

Benefiting from the industry's trade demand, the company's revenue from all routes increased strongly: the volume and price of the company's Asia-Europe routes and the Asia-Australia route increased by 9.8% year on year in 2021, and the average revenue per TEU increased by 177.1%. As a result, the company's Asian-European route revenue increased 204.2% year on year in 2021. At the same time, the industry trade volume of the Asian-European westbound route increased 8.3% year-on-year. The company's Asian-Australian route revenue in 2021 increased 91.7% year on year, cargo volume increased 4.3% year on year, and average revenue per TEU increased 83.9% year on year. Factors such as port congestion, lack of truck capacity, insufficient railway capacity, shortage of empty containers at key locations, and shortage of labor supply under the pandemic have led to a tight supply chain, and cargo volume on the Pacific and Atlantic routes has been blocked. However, due to strong demand (Pacific Line industry trade volume increased 18.9% year on year in 2021, trade volume of the Atlantic route industry increased 14.3% year on year), revenue per TEU increased high.

Supply chain efficiency has led to a decline in net capacity, and continuous improvement in actual capacity has deepened the scale advantage: in 2021, the company's net container transportation capacity fell 3.9% year-on-year due to extended cargo transit time and port congestion. We expect that in the future, as supply chain pressure eases and the company continues to deliver new ships (12 ships are expected to be delivered between 2023Q1-2024Q3 and 10 2024Q4-2025Q4 ships). With the addition of new vessels and the sharing of container capacity with COSCO SHIPPING Group, the company continues to expand its actual capacity and its own vessel construction, deepening its scale advantage.

Our view: The industry may be affected by rising fuel prices, rising labor costs due to tight supply chains and shortage of personnel, and suppression of demand by inflation in North America. However, we believe that on the revenue side, the company will benefit from continued growth in overall trade demand and its own brand building; cost side companies will improve operational efficiency through digital innovation, reduce costs and increase efficiency through synergy with COSCO Marine Control, increase maximum capacity, continue to deepen scale advantages, and achieve cost side optimization.

Risk warning: 1) changes in trade between China and the US and the COVID-19 pandemic; 2) spot freight charges are falling; 3) port congestion continues; 4) industry competition is intensifying.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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