$Alcoa (AA.US) $First-quarter 2022 results will be released after the close of U. S. stocks on April 20. Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten analysts' expectations by an average of 27.08 per cent.

In the last quarter, Alcoa's earnings per share were $2.50, 22.55% higher than the consensus estimate of $2.04 by analysts at forecasting platform Zacks Consensus. Over the past three months, the company's shares have risen 49 per cent, compared with 21.2 per cent for the industry as a whole.

Factors needing attention

In March, LME aluminum prices rose above $3500 a tonne, surpassing the peak in 2008 and reaching an all-time high. LME aluminum prices have risen as much as 17% so far this year. LME aluminum prices continue to hover near record highs and are likely to continue to set new records as LME's aluminum inventories continue to decline.

Analysts generally expect Alcoa to benefit from strong demand for aluminum and value-added products in the first quarter. Strong production and large shipments of smelting-grade alumina and aluminium metals are supported by rising commodity prices caused by tensions between Russia and Ukraine, a trend that could boost the company's revenues. In addition, the company's efforts to improve bauxite production are likely to prove very beneficial to the company in its upcoming quarterly results.

The company's growing popularity of its Sustana and EcoSource products could also boost the company's first-quarter results. Alcoa's focus on operating performance and business efficiency, as well as the application of digital technology in operating and cost control measures, is likely to improve quarterly profit margins and profitability that will be announced soon.

However, the decline in bauxite shipments and supply chain challenges in the end market could adversely affect Alcoa's first-quarter results. In addition, given the wide geographical distribution of its business, its business has been adversely affected by global economic, political risks and foreign exchange fluctuations, with a stronger dollar likely to hurt Alcoa's overseas revenue in the first quarter of 2022.

Zacks Consensus's forecast data showAnalysts generally expect the company's total revenue in the first quarter to be $3.496 billion., up 21.8% and 4.7% respectively over the same period last year and the previous quarter.A consensus expectation of earnings of $3.05 per shareIt means that the year-on-year growth rate will reach 286.1%, and the month-on-month growth will reach 22%.

Forecast data display of information and data statistics platform Seeking AlphaAnalysts generally expect Alcoa Q1 revenue of $3.49 billion and EPS of $2.89 under GAAP guidelines.

Stock prices may usher in a new wave of outbreak.

Since the beginning of this year, thanks to soaring commodity prices and increased demand for commodities brought about by the global economic recovery, the wind in the US stock market has shifted from technology stocks to cyclical stocks. Alcoa shares have risen an astonishing 50.3% since the start of the year and continue to rise, closing at $89.450 as of yesterday.

According to statistics from the Zacks platform, whenever Alcoa's EPS exceeds expectations, there is a good chance that the share price will rise. Based on the above data and analysis, the overall performance of Q1 Alcoa is likely to exceed expectations again.

Goldman Sachs Group previously raised Alcoa's share price target to $115 from $88 and reiterated its "buy" rating on the stock.Goldman Sachs Group said in a research report that geopolitical events have further pushed up aluminium prices, while rising electricity prices, corporate production cuts and supply chain bottlenecks continue to disrupt the city.

Goldman Sachs Group also said that Alcoa should now enjoy a higher pricing level than in the past, given the company's improved financial level, the prospect of structural growth in aluminium demand and the company's focus on decarbonization technology.

Recently, analysts at Bank of America Corporation compiled a list of "buy" rated stocks in which quarterly profits and revenues are likely to exceed analysts' consensus expectations. Alcoa is on the list.