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粮价疯涨,逼迫耶伦出马应对粮食危机

Food prices are soaring, forcing Yellen to run to deal with the food crisis

Wind資訊 ·  Apr 19, 2022 11:45

Since 2020, global food prices have begun to rise steadily. Since the end of February 2022, under the catalysis of geopolitical time, food prices have risen significantly. Now, food prices have risen so much that the United States cannot sit idly by, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen has met with relevant ministers to deal with the food crisis.

The latest big rise in agricultural products is corn.

Corn futures have not exceeded $8 a bushel since September 2012. More than a decade ago, corn soared because of a devastating drought in the Midwest that destroyed crops. Now, supply risk is back, but for different reasons.

The outlook for global corn supply has fallen sharply since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out at the end of February. Ukraine, which previously supplied 1/5 of the world's corn, is likely to fall by 50 per cent this year. On the other hand, soaring fertiliser costs have forced some American farmers to plant more soybeans this growing season rather than corn, because soybeans need less fertilizer.

Fertiliser prices hit an all-time high because of rising natural gas prices and Russia's restrictions on the export of fertiliser to "unfriendly" countries. Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of chemical fertilizer, while the United States happens to be a major importer of Russian nitrogen and potassium. The latest development driving the surge in corn prices was the Biden administration's announcement last week of emergency measures to expand biofuel sales to curb soaring gasoline prices. The problem with this move is that the ethanol industry has absorbed a larger share of the corn crop, which will limit the supply of the food industry.

Statistically, Russia and Ukraine produce about 30% of the world's wheat and barley and provide most of the wheat purchased by 36 countries, according to the United Nations memo. Russia and its ally Belarus also export about 20% of the world's fertiliser.

Not only corn, but also all kinds of food prices are rising around the world.

In March, global food prices rose 12.64% from a year earlier, almost double the previous monthly increase! There was also a food crisis in 2010-2011, resulting in more social crises in the Middle East. After the interference of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, global food prices are now at the highest level recorded by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, an increase of 34 per cent over the same period last year.

Us Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with ministers from the world's leading industrial countries this week to deal with the growing international food crisis. Yellen and her deputy Wally Adeyemo are scheduled to hold a seven-day high-level economic meeting in Washington on Monday with the leaders of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (World Bank), the Group of Seven (G7) and the Group of 20 (G20).

Yellen and her handrails plan to use the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to discuss how the United States and its allies can work together to ensure that countries that depend on wheat and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine will not face widespread food shortages as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

A senior US Treasury official told the media: "Secretary Yellen is very concerned about the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global economy, including the growing security issues in emerging markets, especially as we are struggling to recover from the epidemic. "

IMF leader Kristalina Georgieva, World Bank President David Malpass, and International Fund for Agricultural Development (International Fund for Agricultural Development) President Gilbert Houngbo all plan to participate in at least part of the agenda of the week-long meeting. Yellen will also hold a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

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