"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!
Focus Today
CITIC: the economy is expected to be repaired in the second and third quarters.
Haitong: the gem index will still be dominated by weakness in the short term, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out.
CICC: if the rise in the price of crude oil is blocked, the increase in the price of agricultural products may be limited.
Citic Construction Investment: Shanghai promotes enterprises to return to work and production, with emphasis on recommending the intelligent automobile industry chain.
China International Capital Corporation: there is still room for interpretation of the stable growth target of infrastructure, focusing on undervalued stocks.
Huachuang Securities: the impact of short-term raw materials and epidemic situation brings opportunities for low valuation allocation of auto parts plate.
Galaxy Securities: the central bank is expected to cut reserve requirements and stabilize growth, and the energy metal sector is expected to rebound.
Guojin Securities: the epidemic situation does not change the long-term growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the head express company.
CICC: looking forward to the quarterly inspection of Hang Seng Index, Kuaishou Technology (01024) and others may be included in the constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index.
Anxin International: maintain Great Wall Motor's (02333) buy rating and lower the target price to HK $24
CICC: maintain Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited's (01876) "outperform industry" rating, lowering the target price by 7.5% to HK $26.1
Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper
I. Macro-market
CITIC: the economy is expected to be repaired in the second and third quarters.
CITIC believes that GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, slightly weaker than in the third quarter of 2021, reflecting the downward pressure on economic growth. The structural characteristics are more worthy of attention: 1) on the production side, the margin of the service industry weakens, but the industry as a whole remains resilient; 2) on the demand side, infrastructure investment accelerates upward, other demand variables are impacted to varying degrees, and consumption pressure is highlighted. It should be noted that due to the relatively small proportion of indicators such as GDP and fixed asset investment in the whole year in the first quarter, there is still time and space for stable growth. With the further development of policies, the economy is expected to repair in the second or third quarter.
Haitong: the gem index will still be dominated by weakness in the short term, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out.
Haitong pointed out that the commodity prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to be arranged at high levels, which may further lead to a food crisis. the prices of some agricultural products have reached a 10-year high, and the prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. the price of crude oil is still above $100. the high price of raw materials makes the profits of downstream enterprises further compressed, have to raise prices to deal with it, and the terminal consumer demand will decline over a long time. It is not conducive to long-term sustainable development. The gem index with low continuous innovation still fluctuates near 2474 points, has not been able to get rid of the effective rebound in the region and the trading volume continues to be depressed, it will still be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out.
II. Industry plate
CICC: if the rise in the price of crude oil is blocked, the increase in the price of agricultural products may be limited.
China International Capital Corporation believes that in this price rise, the driving effect of the cost factor on grain prices is stronger than that of fundamentals on prices. Therefore, we believe that, looking ahead, if the rise in crude oil prices is blocked, there may be limited room for agricultural prices to rise. Of course, in the context of low global inventories and less-than-expected recovery of supply, the center of gravity of agricultural prices may rise significantly for some time.
Citic Construction Investment: Shanghai promotes enterprises to return to work and production, with emphasis on recommending the intelligent automobile industry chain.
Citic Construction Investment pointed out that on the evening of April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission issued guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises resuming work and production, and proposed to implement closed-loop management on the premise of ensuring that the risks are controllable. effectively, orderly and effectively promote enterprises to resume work and production, and ensure the security and stability of the industrial chain supply chain. The first batch of enterprises to resume work and production include the automobile manufacturing industry, focusing on the intelligent automobile industry chain.
China International Capital Corporation: there is still room for interpretation of the stable growth target of infrastructure, focusing on undervalued stocks.
China International Capital Corporation believes that looking forward to the future, there is still room for interpretation of the stable growth target of infrastructure, focusing on undervalued stocks. Judging from the recent market performance of the construction sector, the share prices of central construction enterprises have rebounded rapidly from their lows in the past ten trading days, and the current share prices have maintained high and small fluctuations. Under the circumstances that the current economy has not stabilized and the infrastructure has not yet made full use of its strength, there is still room for deduction of the target of stable growth in the future. Stock selection suggests that we should pay attention to the stocks with high quality, sound performance and high margin of valuation; at the same time, we suggest that we should pay attention to the areas with low resistance to stable growth and high certainty of fiscal strength; in addition, we should also pay attention to the opportunities for the layout of individual stocks with medium-and long-term high growth and current valuations falling to low points.
Huachuang Securities: the impact of short-term raw materials and epidemic situation brings opportunities for low valuation allocation of auto parts plate.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that it is optimistic about the opportunity of relayout of 2Q auto parts, the high growth rate of the plate in the second half of the year will remain unchanged, and the expectation of increasing global competitive advantage of Chinese auto parts in the medium and long term will remain unchanged. Short-term raw materials, the impact of the epidemic brings low valuation allocation opportunities.
Galaxy Securities: the central bank is expected to cut reserve requirements and stabilize growth, and the energy metal sector is expected to rebound.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that under the severe domestic epidemic situation and the requirements of stable growth, monetary easing and fiscal support are expected to strengthen, the central bank cut the reserve requirement by 25 basis points, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded significantly. Under the sharp rebound of the real estate sector, the industrial metals in the upper reaches of the real estate industry chain may pick up along with the downstream demand, and the prosperity margin will rise.
Guojin Securities: the epidemic situation does not change the long-term growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the head express company.
Guojin Securities pointed out that the epidemic does not change the long-term growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the head express company. The demand for e-commerce consumption is still there, and when the domestic epidemic is brought under control and enters the traditional peak season in June, the suppressed consumer demand is expected to be released, and the growth rate of express delivery business is expected to reach more than 30%.
III. Individual stocks
CICC: looking forward to the quarterly inspection of Hang Seng Index$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $May be included in the constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index
Hang Seng Index will announce the results of the first-quarter review of the Hang Seng Index on May 20. CICC expects to pay attention to some of the new economic leaders, index expansion is likely to accelerate, based on existing data and index adjustment methods, as well as through the previous adjustment results of the systematic optimization of the compilation method of understanding and verification The bank estimates that Baidu, Inc. (09888.HK), Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK), JD Health (06618.HK), BeiGene, Ltd. (06160.HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (03692.HK), Bilibili Inc. (09626.HK) and China Gas (00384.HK) rank at the top of the Hang Seng Index and are likely to be potential candidates. In addition, the weights of HSBC Holdings PLC (00005.HK) and AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) may be passively reduced to 8 per cent from the current 8.32 per cent and 8.19 per cent, leading to potential passive capital outflows.
Anxin International: maintain$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $Buy rating, target price lowered to HK $24
Anxin International released a research report, said that to maintain Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) buy rating, due to the rise in raw material prices, chip shortage, epidemic and other factors, production and sales and performance under pressure in the first quarter. The bank adjusted Great Wall Motor's net profit in 2022 / 23 to 8.9 billion / 11.8 billion and lowered its target price to HK $24, which is 118 per cent higher than the current price, corresponding to 20 times forecast earnings for 22 years. The report said the April outbreak is expected to affect the production and logistics of chips and other spare parts, and the industry will have to wait until May to improve. More than 2022 products will be on the market soon, and they are still in a strong period.
CICC: maintain$Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited (01876.HK) $"outperform industry" rating, target price reduced 7.5% to HK $26.1
CICC said in a research report that the company is also experiencing the test of rising costs, but its ability to control costs and raise prices is better than that of the industry, or the final cost increase is lower than that of the industry. As each cost price continues to rise, the company's 1Q22 gross profit margin and EBITDA profit margin are under pressure, CICC estimates that 1Q22EBITDA profit margin is basically the same as the same period. However, due to the high efficiency of operation and procurement, and relying on the bargaining power of Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA, the world's largest beer company, it is believed that the upward pressure on costs throughout the year will be significantly less than that of the local beer leader.
Edit / emily