Main points of investment
Event: the company publishes its 2021 annual report. In 2021, ① achieved operating income of 5.067 billion yuan, an increase of 20.89%, a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, an increase of 23.82%, and a non-return net profit of 822 million yuan, an increase of 5.49%, of which non-recurrent profit and loss mainly came from non-current assets disposal profit and loss of 174 million yuan. ② 2021Q4 realized operating income of 1.417 billion yuan, an increase of 20.06%, a net profit of 203 million yuan, an increase of 25.57%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, a decrease of 19.73%. On a quarterly basis, the company's 21Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 revenue growth rate was 31.71%, 23.98%, 9.96%, 20.06%, respectively, and its homing net profit growth rate was 17.19%, 27.20%, 25.69% and 25.57%, respectively.
Profit distribution: cash dividend of 3.50 yuan (including tax) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
The color box business is improving & the investment income is high and the profit is improved: in 2021, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 32.21% and 20.12%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes were-2.59pct, + 0.48pctten 21Q4 gross profit margin and 14.32%, respectively, year-on-year changes + 3.49pct, + 0.63pct.
(1) the performance of tobacco label business is poor: in 2021, the revenue of tobacco label business was 2.399 billion yuan (47.34% of revenue), with a decrease of 13.79%, and a gross profit margin of 36.97%, with the same reduction of 5.67pct. The poor performance of the tobacco label business is mainly due to the ① revenue end, and the phased lack of regional markets in Yunnan and Hubei is a drag on the tobacco label business; on the cost side of ②, the main raw materials of the tobacco label are tobacco cards (belonging to special white cardboard), and 2021H1 white cardboard has risen from 7125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9866 yuan / ton. Although it has dropped in the later stage, it is still at a high level, and the company's profits are under short-term pressure. At the end of the ③ structure, the introduction of new tobacco products has slowed down, and the continuous price reduction of old products with the extension of the life cycle has led to a significant decline in gross profit margin.
(2) the color box business is steadily improving: in 2021, the color box business achieved an income of 920 million yuan (18.16% of revenue), an increase of 10.04%, and a gross profit margin of 38.52%, with an increase of 6.15pct. The company's color box business covers alcohol and tobacco gift boxes, 3C consumer electronics, e-cigarettes, cosmetics and other fields, and broadens its moat by providing customers with services from design, R & D, production and marketing. The proportion of high-margin products (alcohol and tobacco gift boxes and e-cigarettes) has been significantly improved.
(3) the expense rate remains stable, and the investment income increases high: in terms of expense rate, the sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate in 2021 are 1.83% 6.93%, 4.71%, 0.15%, respectively, with year-on-year changes + 0.10/+0.65/-0.14/-0.03pct. Among them, Q4 sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate is 3.1%, 9.76%, 5.48%, 0.12%, respectively, with year-on-year changes + 3.88/+2.17/-0.22/-0.07pct. Q4 due to equity incentive amortization and other factors led to an increase in expenses, but the annual expense rate remained stable. In terms of investment income, the investment income in 2021 was 308 million yuan (25.72% of the total profits), an increase of 217.18%, of which the investment income of associated enterprises reached 123 million yuan, an increase of 63.73%, mainly from Shen Ren Packaging and Shanghai Rencai, which are supporting the layout of Maotai.
The layout of the new tobacco business is becoming more and more perfect, and the revenue growth rate is eye-catching: in 2021, the new tobacco achieved an income of 169 million yuan (3.34% of revenue), an increase of 381.16%. In terms of HNB, it mainly focuses on Yunnan Zhongyan and other China Tobacco companies to carry out smoking set OEM business; in terms of atomization e-cigarettes, it mainly targets overseas markets, with products covering disposable e-cigarettes, bullet-changing e-cigarettes and CBD atomization appliances, etc. By establishing close equity cooperation with industry-renowned companies such as you and I Technology and Longwu Technology to cope with American PMTA audit, and lay a good foundation for expanding quality customers and market share.
Profit forecast: the operating income from 2022 to 2023 is expected to be 62.18 yuan and 7.555 billion yuan, an increase of 21.7% and 21.5% respectively over the same period last year; the net profit attributed to the parent company is 12.32 yuan and 1.536 billion yuan respectively, up 20.8% and 24.7% respectively over the same period last year; and the price E corresponding to the stock price on April 15, 2022 is 13.8 and 11.1 times, respectively.
Risk hint: the progress of bidding is not as expected, the development of e-cigarette business is not as expected, and the raw materials are rising sharply.