CICC strategy: continue to focus on "steady growth" and pay attention to the signal of policy meeting

Structurally, we believe that in the current uncertain environment, on the one hand, we should control the position; on the other hand, we suggest looking for the direction of "relative certainty", and we can pay appropriate attention to: the relevant sectors of "steady growth"; companies with good performance and may exceed expectations, the first quarter may be the annual low from the perspective of year-on-year earnings growth; companies with increased holdings of shareholders and executives with good fundamentals. In addition, with regard to the recent signs of accelerated adjustment of the manufacturing growth style, which is still high in the market, we believe that although there may be a lack of catalytic factors in the short term, the long-term allocation value of some high-quality companies has gradually emerged after more early adjustments.

CITIC: the inflection point of the epidemic is coming, and the repair market is imminent.

The inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai is approaching, and it is expected that the zero clearance of society will be gradually realized; this epidemic is a serious drag on the economy, and it is difficult for growth to return to the target level in the first half of the year, and it is soon expected that policies related to expanding investment will accelerate in the second quarter. supply chain facilitation and consumption stimulus will be carried out at the same time; due to the epidemic, the mid-term repair market has been delayed, but the stable growth market will be more clear and lasting. First of all, under the trend of a sharp decline in the transmission coefficient and a sharp increase in square cabin capacity, Shanghai is expected to basically achieve the goal of clearing the social surface around April 20. Second, the economic situation in the first quarter of this year is expected to be weaker than that in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the economy is expected to continue to be under pressure in the second quarter, and the negative impact is not weaker than in the first quarter. Finally, policies around the rescue of stable real estate and service industries are expected to accelerate. At present, various departments are focused on channelling the supply chain and industrial production in the Yangtze River Delta region. After the epidemic is brought under control, the policy is expected to comprehensively increase the size to stimulate consumption according to the damage. At present, monetary easing such as cutting reserve requirements and interest rates is difficult to directly ease investors' concerns. The market is still waiting for the inflection point of the epidemic and resuming production, and the mid-term repair of the market may be delayed, but pessimistic expectations have been fully released and the market is on the verge of trigger.It is suggested that we should strengthen the main line of stable growth and lay out the varieties with low valuations and expected low levels.

Western Strategy: confidence repair is more important than RRR reduction

Looking to the future, with the dawn of the domestic epidemic and the revision of market expectations for monetary policy, we believe that market confidence is expected to be gradually repaired. As the decision-makers tend to agree on the epidemic situation in Shanghai, there will be a high degree of certainty that the epidemic in Shanghai will be effectively controlled in April. The signal from monetary policy also means that policy makers have begun to make overall plans for the repair of the post-epidemic economy. Although the economy is still under pressure in the second quarter, there is little risk of economic stall for the whole year. For overseas markets, the impact of repeated overseas outbreaks on the economy and capital markets is likely to be worse than that of the Fed's interest rate hikes and contraction tables, which will also become the marginal variable driving foreign capital inflows. From the perspective of market style, the dominant market of value style since the end of last year has been interpreted to the extreme, and the market will return to equilibrium in the second quarter. Structurally focused on: 1) after the epidemic performance repair strong expectations of express logistics, catering tourism, airport aviation, and media and other offline economy-related industries are expected to welcome the market rebound; 2) with the gradual rise in inflation expectations, CPI-related agriculture and must-be consumer sectors are still the main market for the whole year. 3) the annual report and the quarterly report will make periodic repairs to the leaders of the prosperous track with high certainty (new energy, semiconductors, medicine, military industry, etc.).

Investment strategy: waiting for U-shaped bottom construction, there are still challenges in the short term.

What do you think of this reserve cut? Interpretation one, this is a liquidity reduction under the relatively abundant, signal-based significance. Second, price-based tools are not the first choice, and policies will continue to focus on structure in the near future. Interpretation 3, the market has been included in higher loose expectations, facing challenges and pressure in the short term. Interpretation 4, it is not appropriate to this small cut as a new round of market "starting gun", the recovery of the epidemic will be the key. The epidemic is an important issue at present, and it will also have an impact on the focus and pace of economic policy before the epidemic improves. And this cut, no matter how big or small, may not become the "starting gun" of the new round of market, and the market will continue to bottom out.

Tianfeng strategy: the macro logic of social integration, reserve reduction and table reduction and the industry thinking of dilemma reversal

Before the market accumulates more expectations and signals that the economy may stabilize and rebound, the overall position is cautious, the defense thinking of the undervalued plate continues, and the macro logic of market trading is dominated. In the follow-up, if there are more signals that the economy may gradually stabilize, the market risk appetite may gradually increase, the style of manufacturing (growth) and consumption may begin to repair, and the market will transition from trading macro logic to trading fundamentals. The first window is about the first ten days of May: ① Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on May 5, decided whether the rapid upward trend of TIPS brought about by the shrinking table can come to an end; the unsealing and resumption of production in ② Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region; and ③ announced whether social finance can continue to improve in April.

Livelihood strategy: no matter where the epidemic eventually goes, the era of instability is coming.

Changes in awareness of the epidemic are the key to short-term market pricing, but not everything. The world of the future can no longer go back to the past and cherish all the opportunities offered by the market to switch to inflationary assets.

Zhejiang Merchants Strategy: the trend is formed inadvertently

On April 15, the central bank announced an across-the-board target cut of 0.25 percentage points. As for the impact on A shares, we believe that the main goal is to strengthen the logic of the stable growth chain, but the impact on the index level is limited.

Cinda strategy: how long can the financial real estate lead the rise?

The impact of the recent epidemic has, on the one hand, strengthened the policy of stabilizing growth, and on the other hand, allowed some investors to begin to lay out the fundamental month-on-month repair after the epidemic. The former logic is long-term and may last for a long time, so it can be done locally for a long time. In the latter logical partial game, considering that the impact of this month-on-month economy is smaller than that of Q1 in 2020, the intensity of month-on-month repair after the epidemic will be much smaller, which can only be done as an oversell rebound.

Huatai Strategy: when the RRR reduction "encounters" the upside-down interest rate gap between China and the United States

The two key messages put forward by the interpretation of this round of central bank reserve cut are worth noting: 1) liquidity has been at a reasonable and adequate level, and 2) "taking into account internal and external balance" has become the second priority consideration of the policy; the former indicates that the term spread is already in the right position. The latter implies that there is still pressure on the spread between China and the United States. From the perspective of the spread that affects the risk premium of A shares, the term spread is at the 73% percentile (since 2010, the latter is the same) and has remained stable since the end of 2020, while the credit spread is at the 24% percentile, which has fallen since the bottom of 3Q21. The interest rate spread between China and the United States is in the 2% quartile, which has accelerated recently and entered the inverted range. The main contradiction corresponding to the current market is corporate profits (Sino-US interest rate spread) rather than the cost of capital (term spread) and financing environment (credit spread). The RRR reduction is the market "replenishment" but not the "antidote".

Guohai strategy: what are the investment opportunities at the bottom of the market?

At present, A shares are still in a bottoming period. on the one hand, a series of positive changes have taken place in domestic policy, including the first cut of reserve requirements this year, the further relaxation of local real estate policies, and the gradual release of domestic supply chain shocks, etc., on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike 50BP and contraction table are also expected to hit the ground in early May. However, the final confirmation of the market bottom signal needs to see the macroeconomic bottoming out stabilizing and the negative disturbances overseas being significantly alleviated.