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旭辉控股集团(00884.HK):逆境重启核心城市拿地 年内刚性到期债券拟清零

Xuhui Holding Group (00884.HK): Adversity restarts, core cities acquire land, and rigidly maturing bonds within the year will be cleared

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 16, 2022 00:00  · Researches

22Q1 sales of 28.7 billion, year-on-year-49% of 22-year planned equity sales were flat. From January to March 2022, the company's sales amount was 28.74 billion yuan,-49.3% compared with the same period last year; the sales area was 183.7 million square meters,-46.0% compared with the same period last year; and the average sales price was 16500 yuan / flat,-1.2% compared with the same period last year.

In March, the company's sales volume was 12 billion yuan,-54% compared with the same period last year, and the sales area was 711,000 square,-52% compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the company achieved sales of 247.3 billion yuan, + 7.1% compared with the same period last year, the first-and second-tier and quasi-second-tier sales accounted for 87%, and the sales payback rate exceeded 95%; the sales area was 1449 million square meters,-5.8% compared with the same period last year; and the average sales price was 17700 yuan per flat, + 18.0% compared with the same period last year. In 22 years, the company expects the sales value to reach 360 billion yuan,-10% compared with the same period last year, of which the new sales value in 22 years is about 220 billion yuan, and the first-and second-tier and quasi-second-tier accounts for 81%. At the performance meeting, the company proposed that the sales amount of 22-year target rights and interests was the same. the company ploughs the first-and second-tier cities with good supply and demand relations, and the layout is concentrated in urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Sea, which will help the company realize its annual sales plan this year.

22Q1 took $5.2 billion in land, revived adversity and focused on first-and second-tier core cities. From January to March of 2022, the company added 326,000 square meters of construction area,-83.2% compared with the same period last year; the corresponding total land price was 5.23 billion yuan,-57.0% compared with the same period last year; the average floor price was 16043 yuan / ping. The land acquisition project focused on the core first-and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, obligation and so on. In April, the company acquired a new project in Changsha. Take land / sales area Prida 18%, take land / sales amount ratio 18%, private enterprises take land frozen background, the company restart to take land, low-cost replenishment of high-quality land storage.

In 2021, the company added 1170 million square meters of capacity,-10.5% compared with the same period last year, the corresponding goods value was 205.6 billion yuan, the first and second lines and quasi-second lines accounted for 84%, the amount of land was 87.8 billion yuan, the land price was 39.4 billion yuan, the average land price was 7505 yuan / ping, the land / sales ratio was 36%, the land / sales average price ratio was 42%, and the land area equity ratio was 52%. By the end of 2021, the company had confirmed 5246 million square meters of land reserves, which could cover 3.6 times of the 21-year sales area, with an equity ratio of 54 percent, including 5983 million square meters of total land reserves, with 87 percent of the total land reserves of the first and second lines.

Three red lines reach the green level, bonds will be issued one after another in the face of adversity, and rigid maturing bonds are expected to be cleared ahead of schedule. At the end of 2021, after excluding advance receipts, the asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio were 67.9% and 62.8% respectively, which were higher than those of-2.8 and-1.2pct at the end of 2021. The structure of corporate debt is healthy. In terms of maturity, the debt due within one year accounts for 16%; by category, bank loans / foreign preferred bills / domestic debt account for 64%, 26%, 10% respectively. In 2022, the company issued US $150 million of green bonds in January, approved a quota of 5 billion votes in February, completed the initial issue of HK $1 billion in March, and issued HK $1.957 billion plus HK $588 million in April at an interest rate of 4.75%. Recently, the company has received a loan line of HK $10 billion from Bank of Communications and 5 billion from Ping an Bank. Under the financial difficulties of the industry, the company is one of the few private enterprises recognized by the inter-bank market and has achieved bond issuance one after another. So far, the company has only one RMB bond maturing rigidly during the year, with a balance of 1.48 billion yuan, and has recently issued an offer to redeem it, with a buyback rate of 53%, and the remaining proportion will be returned when it matures on April 23. At that time, the rigid maturing bonds will be cleared ahead of schedule.

Investment analysis opinion: adversity restart core cities to acquire land, rigid maturing bonds will be cleared during the year, and the "buy" rating will be maintained. Xuhui holding Group started in Shanghai, adhering to the high-quality national layout, ploughing the first and second lines, focusing on urban agglomerations, achieving high sales growth, continuous downward financing costs after listing, debt ratio has been safe and controllable, and profit margins have been stable in recent years. to achieve dynamic and balanced development of scale, profit margin and leverage ratio. We believe that the company will achieve longer-term and more quality growth in the new industry with excellent management skills and high-quality asset portfolio. We maintain the company's 2022-24 earnings per share forecast of 0.94 yuan, 0.96 yuan and 1.01 yuan respectively, maintain the target price of HK $8.64, and maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the industry regulation is higher than expected, the settlement profit margin is lower than expected, and the sales removal rate is lower than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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