"if the supply chain enterprises in and around Shanghai cannot find a way to return to work dynamically and resume production, all the whole car factories in China may have to stop production in May. On April 14, he Xiaopeng, founder and chairman of XPeng Inc., posted a post on Wechat moments pointing to the severe challenges facing the current automobile industry chain.

Prior to this, NIO Inc. and Great Wall Motor tank brands have announced one after another that the company's supply chain partners have stopped work and operations one after another due to the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Jilin.Affected by this, the production of the whole vehicle will be suspended, and the delivery of some vehicles will be delayed.

A reporter from Securities Times e Company learned through multiple interviews that under the epidemic, the automobile industry is facing double pressure from the supply and demand sides. Most of the car factories have stopped work or reduced production, and the production and logistics of spare parts have come to a standstill. At the consumer terminal, the offline stores in Shanghai are closed, and there is a lot of pressure on online sales.

The reporter visited a number of automobile 4S stores and brand stores in Beijing and found that the delivery cycle of mainstream models in the market has been extended recently, especially the general pick-up cycle of new energy vehicles is about 5-7 weeks, and even some models have to wait for 5 months.

Chen Leiyu, an analyst at ICC Xinhuo Information, told reporters that the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the output of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is at the level of 70, 000 to 80, 000 vehicles a month, while that of Tesla, Inc. is about 65000 to 70, 000 vehicles a month.

However, a turnaround is brewing in the crisis. On April 15, it was reported that SAIC promoted the resumption of work and production and would start the stress test on April 18. In response to this, a person from SAIC Group responded to a reporter from Securities Times e Company: "with regard to the time for resuming production, the company has a target within the company, but it will be timely adjusted according to the situation of controlling the epidemic and its own preparations." "

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on April 15 that it will do its utmost to do a good job in the precise prevention and control of the epidemic, ensure the smooth flow of logistics and stabilize the industrial chain supply chain, and take various measures to support the stable production of key enterprises in Shanghai. Concentrate resources to ensure the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuits, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, biomedicine and other key industries.

Shutdown or reduction of production in the whole plant

Shanghai, as an important city of automobile, the automobile industry chain has been tested in this round of epidemic. In 2021, the country produced 26.528 million vehicles, of which Shanghai Automobile produced 2.833 million, accounting for 10.7 percent of the country's total. New car traffic insurance data show that cumulative new car sales in Shanghai reached 736700 in 2021, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year. In terms of production and sales, Shanghai is a force that can not be ignored in China's auto market.

Under the epidemic, the first to bear the brunt is the whole vehicle factory. The reporter learned in the interview that at present, most of the vehicle enterprises in Shanghai have stopped work or reduced production.

For example, when SAIC-Volkswagen went to work in mid-March, the company originally informed employees to bring two weeks of daily necessities and prepared to close down and manage production. A person from the auto industry in Shanghai told reporters that production had to be stopped at the critical stage of closure due to insufficient inventory of spare parts in the plant.

In addition, SAIC GM, SAIC passenger cars and its own brand Zhiji all have production bases in Shanghai. A number of SAIC GM plants in Pudong have achieved closed-loop production, with workers laying on the floor and obtaining a pass for truck delivery, ensuring material supply to a certain extent.

Shanghai passenger car port base is also in closed-loop management, in addition to the whole car factory, engine factory employees, there are outsourced logistics personnel, suppliers, security cooks and other thousands of personnel eat and live in the factory. "eating and living in the factory has regained production capacity to a certain extent, but the subsequent supply chain problems can not be guaranteed, directly leading to factory production reduction or partial shutdown. The above-mentioned people in the automobile industry told reporters.

The Tesla, Inc. super factory in Lingang, Shanghai, has also suspended production since March 28. With the escalation of epidemic control, the Shanghai Super Factory cancelled its planned resumption of production scheduled for April 1.According to market sources, Tesla, Inc. Shanghai Super Factory may not be able to resume work until May 15. In this regard, Tesla, Inc., a relevant person in China, made it clear that the above rumors are false. Tesla, Inc. has always persisted in fulfilling the main responsibility of epidemic prevention and arranging work at any time in accordance with the government's epidemic prevention policy.

It is worth noting that on April 15, SAIC issued a guide to return to work and production. The guide points out that all enterprises should actively carry out stress testing in accordance with the provisions of the guidelines for resumption of work and production. From now on, the SAIC production enterprises will arrange and feel the preparation for resumption of work and production, and the results will be fed back before April 17, and the production enterprises will start the stress test of resumption of work and production on April 18 according to the situation. All production enterprises carry out stress tests in five aspects: personnel guarantee, supply chain guarantee, logistics guarantee, closed production management and epidemic prevention measures, and report the results and problems of the stress test in time. Enterprises with smooth stress test will arrange the production of complete vehicles and spare parts as soon as possible.

"at present, we should first cooperate with epidemic prevention in accordance with the requirements of the government, maintain and transform equipment at the same time, and make careful preparations for production to meet the conditions of epidemic prevention. A source from SAIC told the Securities Times e Company that "there are targets within the company about the timing of resumption of production, but they will be adjusted timely according to the controlled epidemic situation and their own preparations." "

A few days ago, Sun Jian, director of the Jilin Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, also revealed that the Jilin Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology is fully supporting to help FAW Group resume work and production in batches and in an orderly manner. He said that at present, the first batch of 47 parts companies are resuming work in an orderly manner.

It is believed that the resumption of work and production of FAW and its industrial chain will lead other industries in the province to resume production in an orderly manner. "Sun for short.

According to FAW-Volkswagen insiders, FAW has basically taken action, supplier workers have basically entered the plant, and are gradually promoting the resumption of work and production.

Affected by the above news, at the end of April 15, the auto parts plate rebounded, and the share prices of more than 70 listed companies rose collectively. Among them, Shangsheng Electronics, Changshu Auto Decoration, Xinquan shares, Huguang shares, Bethel closed the trading limit.

Spare parts supply is stuck in production.

The automobile industry is a complex category involving steel, metallurgy, ceramics and other raw materials, as well as electronics, electrical appliances and other industrial sectors, with a very long industrial chain. The supply speed of auto parts manufacturers is also subject to the epidemic, thus affecting the production of the whole car factory.

"Shanghai, as the gathering place of China's automobile industry, including Volkswagen in Jiading, General Motors in Jinqiao, Tesla, Inc. in Port and SAIC passenger cars, have all been affected by the Shanghai epidemic. In addition, auto parts manufacturers located in Shanghai and in Kunshan and Taicang around Shanghai are also affected. Chen Leiyu said that this epidemic has affected the entire automobile industry chain in Shanghai, from spare parts to complete vehicles, and even affect the whole vehicle manufacturing in other places.

Zhang Xiang, director of the New Energy vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Science and Technology Vocational College, pointed out that the inventory cycle of raw materials and spare parts used by SAIC-Volkswagen is usually two weeks, which means that these stocks are exhausted. Its factory is bound to face a partial shutdown. Take SAIC-Volkswagen's plant in Anting in Shanghai as an example. Before the outbreak, its daily production capacity was about 380 vehicles, while during the epidemic, its production remained basically at 200 vehicles, and its production capacity was directly reduced by nearly 50%. "said Zhang Xiang.

According to incomplete statistics, there are tens of thousands of auto parts companies located in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, including foreign parts giants such as Bosch, Amboft, ZF, Schaeffler, Continental Group, Bogwarner, and a large number of Chinese local parts suppliers, including Koboda, Baolong Technology, Daimi shares, United Electronics, Yun Sheng Electronics, Yanfeng Biou, Zejing Electronics, Azura Power and so on.

The products of the above companies cover all kinds of automobile core parts, such as front bumper, interior and exterior decoration, vehicle controller, camera, millimeter wave radar, on-line braking system, ESP, battery management system BMS, etc., almost covering the whole automobile industry chain.

It is reported that the customers of these parts enterprises are mainly Volkswagen, GM, Ford, SAIC, FAW, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and so on.

"many of these parts suppliers are exclusive suppliers to automobile companies, such as Bosch's ESP, which is the exclusive supply of Great Wall Motor. Prior to this, Great Wall Motor's production and sales volume also significantly reduced due to insufficient supply of this part." an industry insider told the Securities Times e Company that some auto parts companies in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai will have a direct impact on the domestic automobile supply chain.

"some auto parts manufacturers are still in closed production to ensure important orders, such as those from overseas export car companies. However, logistics and transportation is still a big challenge. Chen Leiyu said. In addition, the material support for employees to eat and live in the factory, as well as the management and time cost of nucleic acid or antigen testing also affect production capacity.

Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of the International Joint Business School of Zhejiang University, told reporters that the supply of parts upstream determines the production capacity downstream, and auto parts enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are forced to stop production due to the epidemic, which is bound to bring bottlenecks to the production capacity of car companies, resulting in terminal car consumption falling short of demand. However, compared with new energy vehicles, the supply and demand of fuel vehicles will not fluctuate too much.

Extended vehicle delivery cycle

In addition to the pressure on the supply side, the resistance of the car offline consumer terminal is also beginning to appear. The reporter learned that under the control of the epidemic, the offline stores in Shanghai are basically closed, with employees working at home or eating and living in stores.

A staff member of NIO Inc. 's Shanghai store told reporters that at present, cars can be booked online, and all employees work from home. "affected by the epidemic, production will be temporarily suspended, but it will not be stopped forever. No notice has been received for the resumption of offline stores in the Shanghai area. The staff member said that the work during the epidemic was mainly online, keeping in touch with potential customers through Wechat and telephone.

「We are currently quarantined in the 4S store for almost half a month, but fortunately there happens to be a dormitory behind our store, which is also relatively safe.A salesperson from FAW-Volkswagen in Shanghai told the reporter that it is now basically decided online. Although the sales work has not been interrupted, but the performance pressure is not small, the sales said that the current number of new customers is relatively small, mostly in dealing with the backlog of orders. "once there is a new customer online consultation, I will reply enthusiastically in time and strive for a few more words. According to the sales introduction, in order to attract customers to make decisions, the store has also launched activities such as epidemic prevention and control vehicle subsidies and epidemic subsidies.

On the other hand, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the product delivery cycle of many automobile brands has been prolonged, while the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, Changchun and other places has further aggravated the current situation of difficult product delivery.

Recently, a reporter from Securities Times e visited a number of car sales stores in Beijing's Blue Harbor Commercial Plaza and found that the main new energy models on the market have to wait 5 to 7 weeks to pick up their cars, and some even have to wait 20 weeks.

"our deposit is 2000 yuan. If we decide now, we will try our best to arrange existing cars, but the number of existing cars is also relatively limited. The salesperson of the NIO Inc. brand store told the Securities Times e Company that at present the company has stopped production for a short time, but the ES8 and ES6 models have a small amount of inventory, and now it is determined that they can get the existing car relatively quickly, but the car just delivered by ET7 will not be able to pick up the car until after June.

「"living on inventory" has almost become the main survival situation of car sales at present."the Volkswagen ID.4X in the showroom is going to be towed away tonight and has been ordered by users. Now to buy a car, it all depends on the inventory. Models without inventory can only wait. SAIC Volkswagen sales staff told reporters that at present, SAIC-Volkswagen ID.4X has a discount of about 18000 yuan, and the company will also give away certain car purchase rights, which are converted into cash, which is expected to be about 20, 000 yuan.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") pointed out at the monthly information exchange meeting held a few days ago that from the perspective of automobile consumers, the current consumption momentum has been obviously insufficient, showing a certain decline compared with the same period. Looking forward to the whole year, the development of the automobile industry is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, and the task of stabilizing growth is very arduous.

Tesla, Inc. suffered heavy losses.

ICC Xinhuo information analysis believes that due to the lack of staff in the epidemic prevention policy factory, production and logistics stagnant, the supply of key parts is blocked, in the epidemic, vehicle enterprises are the most affected. Chen Leiyu said that the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the output of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is at the level of 70, 000 to 80, 000 vehicles a month, while that of Tesla, Inc. is about 65000 to 70, 000 vehicles a month. In addition to Tesla, Inc., Volkswagen Anting MEB and Lingang Roewe also stopped production.

Zhang Xiang calculated to the reporter that according to Tesla, Inc. 's output in January and February, Tesla, Inc. 's daily production capacity is about 2000 vehicles. "if calculated according to the 20-day shutdown time and the price of 300000 yuan per car, Tesla, Inc. 's loss is more than 10 billion yuan. "

"Tesla, Inc. is the one who lost the most in the whole car factory in Shanghai. Tesla, Inc. now has no inventory in the factory. According to the production of about 2500 vehicles a day, as of April 15, the capacity loss was at the level of 30, 000 to 40, 000 vehicles. If production is stopped until May 1, the capacity loss should be about 70, 000 vehicles. A person in the automobile industry in Shanghai told reporters.

In fact, the decline in production and sales data was already evident in March. According to data released by the China Automobile Association on April 11, domestic car production and sales figures for March this year were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, down 9.1% and 11.7% from a year earlier.

The China Automobile Association believes that mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the production capacity of automobile manufacturers has decreased to a certain extent, and some car companies even have no choice but to cut production or stop production; in terms of product consumption, the epidemic affects consumers' ability and confidence to buy cars, and consumption momentum is obviously insufficient.

What will be the data of automobile production and sales in April, when the epidemic prevention and control is tighter? Some interviewed experts believe that affected by the Qingming Festival holiday in April, the working day is not long, and there is little potential for production and sales growth. The production and marketing of passenger cars in the core areas are greatly affected by the epidemic. Due to the long chain of the automobile industry, high requirements for coordination, and a wider range of radiation from the suspension of production and logistics bases in the core production and logistics bases, the production and marketing pressure in the automobile market may be greater in April.

However, some experts believe that after unsealing, it is not difficult to recover the output. "first of all, some enterprises have a certain amount of inventory, and there is also a certain anti-risk ability around Shanghai. Now the efficiency of automobile manufacturing is getting higher and higher. It is believed that the output can be recovered in May or June. The above-mentioned industry people admitted to the Securities Times e company reporter that at present, the problem on the supply side is not as big as that on the demand side, and how to boost automobile consumption power after the epidemic is also an unavoidable topic.

The Shanghai market accounts for about 7% of the sales of new energy vehicles in the country, and the delivery volume in the Shanghai area was basically zero in April. At present, car companies and parts companies have stopped production on a large scale and cannot restart production in a short period of time. The resumption of terminal car companies also depends on the restart of parts manufacturers, and production is expected to resume at least in early May. "Chen Leiyu said.

Active guarantee in supply chain

The automobile supply chain involves eight major manufacturing systems and tens of thousands of parts, which is one of the longest and most difficult industrial chains in almost all industrial supply chains. At the same time, due to the strict product certification system between the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry, it is difficult for automobile companies to switch suppliers frequently.

For this reason, the management of automobile supply chain has always been a highly valued topic for automobile enterprises and the whole industry.

The shortage of automotive chips in 2021 has given a red light to the management of the automotive industry chain and supply chain. Many automobile companies have stepped up their efforts to establish direct contact with suppliers and take measures such as joint research and development to actively guarantee supply.

Now, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the blocking points and difficult problems existing in China's automobile supply chain industry have been exposed again.

Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that the supply chain system of each automobile company has its own characteristics and characteristics, and most of them match according to their own product positioning. Under the challenge of sudden factors such as the epidemic, those enterprises with core technology, storage and transportation capacity and good control over the supply chain will do better, while some weak enterprises may face greater survival pressure.

To this end, a number of industry insiders called on the government and industry authorities to step in and coordinate. On April 11, the equipment Industry Development Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the launch of the supply chain smooth Coordination platform for the Automobile Industry chain, which pointed out that in order to further ensure the smooth flow of the automobile industry chain supply chain, the Automotive Industry chain supply chain Coordination platform was launched on the same day.

It is reported that the main functions of the platform include: automobile industry chain supply chain enterprise basic information registration, problem feedback and message reply and so on. Through the platform, enterprises can exchange information on practical problems such as resumption of work and production, logistics and transportation, and establish a demand and feedback mechanism for enterprises in the automobile industry chain supply chain, so as to coordinate and solve the practical difficulties faced by enterprises in production and operation in a timely manner.

In fact, in addition to the help of the government and the competent authorities, for car companies, how to strengthen the management of the supply chain is obviously a long-term lesson.

Zhang Xiang suggested that for car companies, try to select at least two suppliers at the core parts level, and in the event of a crisis, the order quantity can be adjusted in an orderly manner. At the same time, he also suggested that enterprises strengthen the degree of localization of core components. For example, BYD has reserves in semiconductors and power batteries, and its advantages will be particularly obvious in the context of "lack of core and less lithium".

Pan Helin also believes that for car companies, they can strengthen their supply chain management through mergers and acquisitions or extending their business to the upper reaches of the industrial chain. On the one hand, it can realize the diversification of the supply system; on the other hand, it can also ensure the stability of the supply chain and hold the dominance of the supply chain in its own hands.

Previously, a senior executive of a car company proposed that for core components such as chips and power batteries, it is necessary for car companies to take the initiative to carry out research and development, so that they can more accurately match each other's needs in the process of selecting suppliers and cooperation with suppliers.

In addition, some people in the industry have suggested that car companies can promote suppliers to build factories nearby and form small-scale industrial clusters, which can greatly reduce the risk of supply cuts.

[reporter's observation] how do vehicle companies stop "bending over" because of spare parts problems?

With the sudden rebound of the epidemic, the myth that the whole vehicle is king continues to be broken.

Recently, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, most local auto parts enterprises temporarily suspended work and production, directly affecting the production of vehicle enterprises. Recently, NIO Inc. and Tank have announced that production will be suspended due to insufficient supply of spare parts. This is since last year's "chip shortage", vehicle enterprises once again because of parts enterprises and "bow down".

In fact, with the improvement of automobile intelligence, the relationship between car companies and parts suppliers is no longer a "protagonist" and "supporting role". Those companies that hold the core technology of key parts have an unprecedented voice in the industry. In view of this, vehicle companies prefer to establish a mutually beneficial and win-win partnership with spare parts companies, but this makes the car supply chain management, which is already difficult to clarify, more complicated.

For automobile companies, automobile supply chain management is a difficult problem. We should not only comprehensively consider the quality of parts, brand, cost, efficiency and logistics, but also consider the matching degree with their own products and brands. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are already some blocking points and difficulties in the automobile supply chain system, which quickly turned on the red light.

In the short term, due to the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the suspension of work, production or logistics of spare parts enterprises, there is an urgent need for the competent government departments to carry out macro-adjustment to help relevant spare parts enterprises and vehicle enterprises to rescue. On April 15, according to an internal document of SAIC, SAIC manufacturers conducted a survey of preparations for resumption of work and production. This is undoubtedly a good signal for SAIC and its surrounding parts enterprises.

However, in the long run, the management of the automobile supply chain still depends on the strength of the enterprise itself. The current cut-off supply of spare parts should make car companies be vigilant.

First of all, in the follow-up automobile supply chain management, it is necessary for automobile companies to carefully screen the core parts suppliers and make more "backups" to avoid being "stuck" due to the cut-off of exclusive suppliers.

Secondly, car companies should pay more attention to key components, including self-research and joint research and development, in order to resist uncontrollable risks. Previously, some car executives said with concern that car companies should also conduct appropriate self-research on the core components of intelligent electric vehicles such as software, chips and batteries, so that they can better understand the situation of suppliers and improve the efficiency and quality of cooperation.

In addition, improving the localization rate of core parts is also the only way to stabilize China's automobile supply chain. As we all know, the market concentration of key automobile parts is very high, and many parts are monopolized by foreign giants. Breaking this deadlock depends not only on the rise of independent parts enterprises, but also on the help of car companies. Only when more and more automobile enterprises dare to use and make good use of domestic parts, can we accelerate the domestic substitution of auto parts and the rise of independent brands.