Hot news of the week
Buffett's latest exclusive interview: highly praised Musk as a "winner", saying that he is in good health and has no retirement plan
In the latest interview released on Thursday, Buffett "praised" Musk when asked about him. Buffett said directly: this shows American products. I mean, he's competing with General Motors Co, Ford, Toyota, who have everything. He has an idea, and he is winning. It's America. You can't even dream of it. It's shocking.
In addition, Buffett admitted that age had some impact on him, mentioning that he would "forget his name and cannot read as fast as he used to," and even described himself as a "rotting machine", but said he still said "it feels great".
On the question of the company's successor, Buffett said there was already a successor (referring to the company's executive Greg Abel), but he added: he's not warming up, I'm still working overtime.
There are a lot of hawks from Fed officials! Expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike in May are getting stronger
In recent days, a number of Fed officials have issued hawkish comments, strengthening expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month in an effort to curb the worst inflation in 40 years.
"I think this is a reasonable choice for us because the federal funds rate is very low," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday. "We really need to make policy adjustments back to more neutral levels. "
The comments also pushed the yield on 10-year Treasuries to 2.8 per cent at one point, up from about 2.70 per cent.
Mr Williams's comments underscored expectations that the Fed plans to raise interest rates to pre-epidemic levels or even higher. This means that in addition to the 25 basis points hike made last month, the Fed will tighten by about 200 basis points during the remaining six meetings this year, bringing interest rates to about 2.5 per cent.
Is it a "slap in the face"? Wooden sister's fund has been withdrawn from nearly 800 million US dollars in the past three weeks.
As the Fed embarks on a radical tightening path, investors are no longer as tolerant of unprofitable overvalued stocks as they used to be. Investors withdrew $791 million from $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US) $in the past three weeks, the longest outflow since November, according to data provider Lipper.
ARKK, which has long been known for betting on innovative growth stocks, has been depressed since the start of the year, down nearly 35 per cent year-to-date, while short sellers focused on shorting wooden sisters are triumphant, with $Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF (SARK.US) $up more than 30 per cent this year.
Review of the market
Daxing looks at the market
Blackrock believes that the Fed will "choose symbiosis with inflation", saying that the market has misjudged the path of raising interest rates.
Blackrock believes that the Fed will accept inflation, so he holds a low-priced position on bonds. Strategists believe that the so-called neutral interest rate-the level of interest rates that do not stimulate or curb the economy-is between 2% and 2.5%, in part on the assumption that price increases will soon peak and gradually moderate.
Blackrock expects inflation to stabilize at about 3 per cent, still above the Fed's target and 10-year average. It does not provide an exact time frame for this prediction.
Fed officials ponder where long-term neutral interest rates might be, while money markets recently expect interest rates to rise as high as 3.2 per cent next year. Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Group, said last week that the Fed might need to raise interest rates above 4 per cent.
JPMorgan Chase & Co: an unprecedented "serious agricultural supply shock" is coming
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co estimate that Ukraine's corn production will fall by at least 40 per cent this year compared with the same period last year, pointing out that more than 20 per cent of Ukraine's winter wheat may not be harvested. They also point out that historical resilience suggests that there is limited room for demand disruption, which could magnify the price impact of any supply disruptions.
In addition, JPMorgan Chase & Co's commodity strategist said that in view of the serious risk of crop supply, it is recommended to continue to long agriculture-related assets through the DBA Jingshun Agricultural Fund (DBA Invesco agri fund), "given that the price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are much higher than the current futures curve, and the spot premium curve of each market shows a positive rollover yield. "
Goldman Sachs Group: commodities are in a "volatility trap" and the supercycle is still in its early stages.
Goldman Sachs Group's head of commodities research, Jeff Currie, said not long ago that commodities are trapped in an "endless cycle", prices will keep pace with volatility, and commodity markets are falling into a volatility trap.
In the latest issue, Currie believes that this "large volatility hinders more investment and then further reinforces the volatility trap" is only in the early stages of the new commodity supercycle he began predicting last year. Without government policies to calm prices and give more certainty about the outlook, investors will be cautious about channelling money to new production over the next few years. According to Currie, there is only one thing that can end a supercycle: investment.
Suggestion on asset allocation of Wande fund
