Event: the company releases its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the annual operating income was 5.537 billion yuan, + 12.76% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 303 million yuan,-41.12% compared with the same period last year. The net cash flow of operating activities was 674 million yuan, which was + 194.35% compared with the same period last year.
Public utilities are related to people's livelihood and urban operation, and have the characteristics of regional monopoly. Volkswagen was originally the first joint-stock company in the taxi industry in the country, and it was also the first listed company after the establishment of Pudong New area. At present, it mainly invests in four major sectors: urban gas, urban transportation, environmental municipal administration and financial venture capital. The company's gas business, sewage treatment, urban transportation and other businesses related to people's livelihood, all signed a "franchise agreement" with the local government, the regional market scope and operating period are stable, the market fluctuation is small, and the business scale is stable and controllable. (1) Gas industry is the core industry of the company. Shanghai Volkswagen Gas, a subsidiary of Shanghai Volkswagen Gas, is a large-scale urban gas operation enterprise integrating gas transmission and distribution, sales and service, accounting for nearly 40% of Shanghai gas sales market, with 1.87 million gas users and 6867 km of natural gas pipeline network. The subsidiary Nantong Volkswagen Gas has 500000 gas users and 2575 kilometers of natural gas pipeline network.
(2) Integrated transportation is the core of urban traffic business. By the end of 2021, its subsidiary Volkswagen had 6255 taxis and 3304 rental cars in Shanghai. In response to energy conservation and emission reduction, Volkswagen has replaced more than 2000 pure electric vehicles, and more than 2000 will continue to be replaced in 2022. It is expected that all the company's fuel taxis will be replaced with pure electric vehicles in the future. (3) the environmental municipal industry is developing rapidly. Operate sewage treatment plants in Shanghai Jiading and Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, Shanghai Xiangyin Road Tunnel, etc.
Actively lay out self-financing and venture capital business, which complement each other with the main business. The company has formed a development situation that public utilities (main business) and financial venture capital (auxiliary industry) go hand in hand. Focus on "consumer finance, platform finance" to expand self-financing business. The Group has wholly-owned "Volkswagen Capital" and participates in many venture capital platforms, such as "Deep Venture Capital", "Xingye Venture Capital", "Huacan Equity Fund", "Dacheng Huicai" and so on. The company's participation in the head institution of private equity has a significant advantage, and the gross profit margin of the investment business is high. After years of development, the group's direct investment and venture capital platform has invested and nurtured more than 100 listed enterprises.
Earnings forecast: cover the stock for the first time and give the company an "overweight" rating. We forecast that from 2022 to 2024, the operating income of the company will be 56.69 billion yuan, respectively, and the net profit of return to the parent will be 322 million yuan, 429 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 329,000,000 yuan, 24.230.26x respectively.
Risk hints: the risk of large fluctuations in domestic natural gas prices; the replacement process of Xinneng taxis is not as expected; the operation of environmental protection projects is not as expected; the profit of financial venture capital business is not as expected; the profit forecast and valuation model is not as expected.
