Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guotai Junan issued a research report saying that the rapid rise in the overseas energy price center, on the one hand, helps domestic enterprises to achieve a stronger cost advantage output in the field of global pricing, on the other hand, for varieties with high capacity utilization, we think we will see an overall upward shift in the price curve from "marginal supply pricing" to "marginal demand pricing". According to the impact degree of overseas energy costs, the elasticity of MDI > glass fiber > glass, and the elasticity of automotive glass is greater than that of float / photovoltaic glass.
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Under the rise of the overseas fuel cost center, it is recommended to expand the fiberglass / glass leading enterprises with the advantage of low-cost export of large goods with global pricing.Key recommendations: Chinese boulder,$Lutheran Glass (00868.HK) $、 Fuyao Glass Industry GroupAt the same time, Wanhua Chemical or flexibility recommended by our chemical team is in the forefront.
Reshaping the global cost comparative advantage, from "marginal supply pricing" to "marginal demand pricing":The price center of overseas energy is rising rapidly, and the price increase of natural gas in Europe > the United States > China. On the one hand, domestic gas prices go out of comparative advantage. On the one hand, it helps domestic enterprises to achieve stronger cost advantage output in the field of global pricing. On the other hand, for varieties with high capacity utilization, we think we will see an overall upward shift in the price curve from "marginal supply pricing" to "marginal demand pricing". If overseas demand is weak, domestic manufacturers can clear overseas capacity through cost comparative advantage, and if overseas demand is better, domestic manufacturers can enjoy higher pricing and profit space, both offensive and defensive.
In the selection of categories, the flexibility of varieties with a high proportion of overseas production and sales is more obvious.From the global production and marketing structure distribution, MDI overseas main production areas are located in Europe and the United States, glass fiber overseas production areas include the United States, Japan and Europe, float glass overseas production capacity is relatively small, and most of the production capacity is located in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, according to the impact degree of overseas energy costs, the elasticity of MDI > glass fiber > glass, and the elasticity of automotive glass is greater than that of float / photovoltaic glass.
Fiberglass: benefit from the rise of the overseas price center under the demand boom.On the supply side, overseas production capacity is facing the double disadvantage of unit consumption + gas price, and the cost competitiveness of the manufacturing side in the medium and long term is further declining; on the demand side, the strong demand for overseas thermoplastics drives the cost of superimposed alternative materials to rise synchronously, and the CIF price of glass fiber export is much higher than that at home, which may lead to a rise in the price center of glass fiber, opening up the profit space of Stonehenge as a global glass fiber leader.
Automobile glass: the competitiveness of order can be enhanced in the medium and long term.In the cost structure of automotive glass, the cost of the original film accounts for more than 30%, and the cost of fuel in the original film is as high as 40%. Therefore, the competitiveness of the original float of domestic enterprises is further enhanced under the background of the rise of overseas fuel hubs. Medium-and long-term dimensions enhance the ability of domestic enterprises to take orders in the new car market. However, at present, the global automobile supply chain is still affected by the epidemic, and the recovery of demand has yet to be started. the impact of short-term overseas production suspension on the automobile replacement market will be more immediate. After the 22H2 epidemic is alleviated, the global automobile industry chain is expected to gradually recover to form a catalyst.
Risk Tips:The global epidemic situation has been repeated, and the international trade environment has deteriorated.
This article comes from the official account of Wechat, "Building Materials of Hero Bao", by Bao Yanxin and Yang Dongting, and Chen Qiuda, financial editor of Zhitong.