Core ideas:
The decline in gross profit margin led to a decline in performance, deducting non-profit to achieve growth. According to the company's 21 annual report, the revenue was 24.16 billion yuan, + 33.3% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 1.64 billion yuan,-34.2% compared with the same period last year. The revenue growth was mainly due to the acceleration of real estate settlement, with the settlement amount of 21.9 billion yuan, + 38% year-on-year, and holding business income of 2.2 billion yuan, + 9% year-on-year. Real estate settlement gross margin of 16.6% (year-on-year-10.9pct), driving tax deduction gross margin-8.2pct to 25.7%, is the core reason for the decline in profits. Deducting the non-return net profit of 440 million yuan, + 54.4% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to non-recurrent interest of 2.9 billion yuan in 20 years. In addition, the decrease in inventory impairment in 21 years, the increase in joint venture income, and the decline in expense rate also have a positive effect.
Sales declined in the second half of the year, and land investment was cautious but land reserves were still abundant. In 21 years, the company's sales amount was 33.88 billion yuan,-15.7% year-on-year, of which 21H1 year-on-year + 37% pr 21H2-50% year on year. In 21 years, the company also reported a recovery rate of 66%, a significant improvement over 20 years, and maintained a 17-year high. The company greatly increased the intensity of land acquisition in 17-19 and declined in 20-21. In the first half of 21, the land market was hot, and the company did not take land. Since June, the company has added 8 parcels of land for the whole year, with a land amount of 10.2 billion yuan, a land area of 1.33 million square meters, and a land amount of 30%. But the company is still rich in soil reserves. by the end of 21, the company has unsettled reserves of 1651 square meters, with a total value of 320.7 billion yuan, and is rich in reserve resources. Enough to support sales growth in the next 3-5 years.
Active pressure reduction interest-bearing debt, three red lines marginal improvement. By the end of 21, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 80.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year ratio of-8.4%, a cash short-debt ratio of 1.41x (year-on-year + 0.14x), a net debt ratio of 146% (year-on-year-26pct), and deducted an advance account asset-liability ratio of 71.7% (year-2.7pct). The company took the initiative to reduce interest-bearing liabilities and dispose of inefficient assets, with a cumulative refund of 15 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 22-23 years is 16.9 / 1.71 billion yuan respectively, and the current market value corresponds to a 21-year net asset PB of 0.6x, which is lower than the comparable company valuation and the company's historical center. There is a valuation repair opportunity under the relaxed real estate policy environment. We give the company a 22-year PB 0.8x valuation and a buy rating corresponding to a reasonable value of 10.39yuan per share.
Risk hint. The degree of prosperity is declining, the cost of financing is rising, and the epidemic situation of COVID-19 is higher than expected.
