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新风光(688663):SVG地位稳固、变频器增长迅速 储能蓄势待发

New scenery (688663): the position of SVG is stable, the frequency converter is growing rapidly, and the energy storage is ready to go.

中信建投證券 ·  Apr 13, 2022 15:11  · Researches

Event

New scenery releases Annual report 2021 and Quarterly report 2022

In 2021, the annual income was 943 million, + 11.7% compared with the same period last year, achieving a net profit of 116 million, + 8.8% compared with the same period last year, deducting 93 million yuan from non-net profit,-8.5% from the same period last year. Revenue in the first quarter was 145 million, 14.6% year-on-year, net profit 17 million,-13.2%, deducting non-net profit 15 million, 3.49%.

Brief comment

The revenue of new energy is basically flat, and the photovoltaic industry has achieved great growth.

From the perspective of the industry, the growth rate of new energy installation in China from 2018 to 2021 was-5.8%,-21.5%, + 129.5% and-14.8% respectively, while the company's new energy revenue growth rate was + 13.4%, 6.1%, + 89.3% and-2.6%, respectively. In terms of structure, wind power 47.6GW and photovoltaic 54.9GW were added in 2021, which were-34% and + 14% respectively compared with the same period last year. The revenue of the company's wind power and photovoltaic industry was-27.5% and + 31.8% respectively compared with the same period last year, which is in line with the above industry trend. The company continues to develop the photovoltaic industry, and overall, the revenue of the new energy business is basically flat.

Continue to dig traditional industries, the main growth comes from frequency converter

In 2021, the total revenue of traditional industries was 491 million, which was + 29.2% compared with the same period last year, of which motor drive and control products (that is, frequency converters) earned 297 million, a year-on-year increase of + 55.2%. Another 98 million million comes from SVG,0.96 energy storage, rail transit energy feedback system, coal mine automation system and so on.

The rise in the price of raw materials and changes in accounting policies have led to a decline in gross profit margin. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin fell by about 4.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The company's main raw materials include transformers, power modules, capacitors, structural components, water cooling equipment, shells and so on.

In 2021, the prices of transformers, structures and shells will rise under the influence of commodities, and the supply of imported components such as IGBT modules will be tight, which will put some pressure on the company's gross profit margin. In addition, the accounting policy was adjusted in 2021 to move transportation costs from sales expenses to operating costs, affecting gross profit margin by about 1.3 percentage points.

Energy storage products have landed projects, and the second growth curve has been opened.

Last year, the company earned 32 million yuan in revenue from its energy storage business and signed about 60 million new orders. The company chooses high-voltage Fed energy topology to give full play to its advantages in frequency converter and SVG, with the advantages of high charging and discharge efficiency and good consistency. In March 2022, the 35kV direct-mounted primary frequency-modulated energy storage power station provided by the company for a large photovoltaic project in Zhejiang was successfully shipped with a capacity of 28.4MW/9.66MWh and 3C discharge rate.

Maintain the "overweight" rating

We expect the company to return to the parent net profit of 1.40 yuan and 175 million yuan in 2022 and 2023, with a current market capitalization of 25 times and 20 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint

The installation of wind power and photovoltaic is not as expected; the cost of raw materials remains high; the fierce competition leads to pressure on gross profits; and the demand for energy storage is suppressed by the rising cost of raw materials.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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