In 21 years, revenue increased by 96.6% over the same period last year, and net profit from home increased by 547% over the same period last year. In 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 1.241 billion yuan (YoY + 96.6%), of which 4Q21 revenue was 343 million yuan (YoY + 76.0%, QoQ + 2.4%); net profit of home ownership was 250 million yuan (YoY + 546.9%), of which 4Q21 net profit was 78.74 million yuan (YoY + 186.0%, QoQ + 4.2%); net profit of non-return home was 249 million yuan (YoY + 1027%).
The company's high performance growth over the past 21 years has benefited from: 1) the surge in demand for emerging application scenarios such as 5G, AIoT, car networking, and WiFi6, while the process of domestic substitution in the crystal oscillator industry has been accelerated; 2) the company relies on the advantages of semiconductor lithography technology to expand the scale of its own production of high-end lithography wafers and increase the iteration speed of new products; 3) each production base continues to increase cost and operating expense control and improve product market share.
The net profit of 1Q22 was 6000-80 million yuan, an increase of 57% and 110% over the same period last year. The company issued a 1Q22 performance forecast. It is estimated that 1Q22 will achieve a net profit of 6000-80 million yuan (YoY 57.3% Mel 110%) and a net profit of 4000-60 million yuan (YoY 10.9% Mel 66.4%). The company transferred all the shares of its holding subsidiary Shenzhen Penghe in January 22. The investment income generated and the impairment provision for Shenzhen Penghe's loan provision have a greater impact on the non-recurrent profit and loss of 1Q22. In addition, the company expects the share payment fee confirmed by 1Q22 to be about 6.87 million yuan. 1Q22's operating performance has achieved rapid year-on-year growth, mainly due to: 1) actively deepening cooperation with end customers; 2) product structure optimization, product prices and gross profit margin year-on-year growth; 3) new products in automotive, industry and other new areas to expand vigorously, increase the market increment.
5G, AIoT and automotive electronics drive the growth of crystal oscillator demand, and the company's product structure continues to be optimized. According to CS&A, the global crystal oscillator market reached US $3.446 billion (YoY + 13%) in 2020, mainly due to the surge in demand in 5G, AIoT and automotive electronics. In the 5G sector, according to TXC data, the global 5G infrastructure market will grow by 24% CAGR in 21-24, and global 5G mobile phone shipments will grow from 500 million units in 21 years to 1.12 billion units in 24 years (CAGR: 31%). In the automotive sector, TXC predicts that the global penetration rate of electric vehicles will rise from 5.2% in 21 years to 17% in 25 years and 40% in 30 years. The crystal oscillator demand of a single electric vehicle is 100-150, which is much higher than that of 60-100 fuel vehicles. The company is expected to seize the opportunity of strong demand and domestic substitution, give full play to the advantages of semiconductor lithography technology, further enhance the global market share and expand automotive, industrial and other high value-added markets.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's operating income to increase by 51.0% to 1.873 billion yuan in 23 years, and the parent net profit to increase by 52.5% to 381 million yuan in 23 years. With reference to the 2022 comparable company's Wind consensus average value of 22.46 times PE valuation, give the company 21-22 times expected PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 40.27-42.18 yuan. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand is not as expected, new product development is not as expected, and competition in the crystal oscillator industry is intensified.