Items:
On April 8, the company issued the "2021 Business Bulletin" and "2022 first quarter results pre-increase announcement". In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 1.24 billion (YoY 96.64%), net profit of 250 million (YoY546.91%), and non-return net profit of 249 million (YoY 1026.77%). It is estimated that the net profit of 2022 Q1 is 60 million-80 million (YoY 57.3%-109.7%), and the non-home net profit is 40 million-60 million (YoY 10.93%-66.40%).
Comments:
Benefiting from the surge in demand in the Internet of things scenario and the acceleration of domestic alternative imports, Q4 maintained high growth in the single quarter.
2021Q4's operating income is 343 million yuan (YoY 75.7% YoY QoQ 2.3%), its net profit is 79 million (YoY 181.4% Q QoQ 3.7%), and the net interest rate is 23% (7.8 pct higher than the same period last year and 0.3pct higher than the previous year). Benefiting from the surge in demand in emerging application scenarios such as 5G, Internet of things, Internet of things, WIFI6 and the accelerated pace of domestic alternative imports, the production capacity of the company's high-end crystal oscillator product line represented by lithography continues to release in 2021, increasing the proportion of shipments, leading to a further increase in net interest rates. We believe that the release of high-end product capacity in 22 years will further accelerate the introduction of high-quality customers, improve the company's product structure and accelerate domestic substitution.
Although Q1 was affected by downstream destocking, it declined slightly from the previous month, but exceeded expectations to complete the task. According to the central value of 70 million, 2022Q1's net profit increased by 84.2% over the same period last year, still maintaining high growth, with a month-on-month growth rate of-11%, a slight decline. The company's product structure is further optimized, the price of crystal oscillator products is stable, the Q1 industry enters the inventory cycle every year, and the slight decline in the company's profit end ring is in line with the changes in the industry cycle, but the overall decline is relatively small, exceeding expectations to complete the task. At present, the prosperity of the downstream of the Internet of things is still strong, and the downstream of the company's product structure (including the Internet of things, smart home, etc.) accounts for about 60%. With the end of the industry destocking cycle, we believe that Q2 performance will return to growth.
Due to the transfer of all shares in the subsidiary Penghe Precision is included in the investment income, the company deducts non-profit and forms a difference of 2000 million. According to the company announcement, in January 2022, the company transferred all the shares of Penghe Precision to form a certain investment income, and the debit impairment of Penghe Precision was prepared for the loss of credit impairment. Q1 Penghe Precision equity disposal had a greater impact on the company's non-operating profits. At the same time, the fee paid by Q1 shares is about 6.87 million yuan. After deducting the effects of equity treatment and share payment, the company's operating profits are expected to perform well. The new products have been successfully promoted in industrial grade, automobile regulation level and other market fields.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: the number of Internet of things connections will remain high, and the demand for crystal oscillator products will increase synchronously. Under the background of domestic substitution, the company will enjoy the dual opportunity of Internet of things plus domestic substitution to increase global market share. We adjust the income forecast of 2021-2023 to 12.41,18.92 and 2.571 billion yuan (the original value is 12.29,18.92 and 2.571 billion yuan), the net profit of returning to the mother is 2.50,3.57,488 million (the original value is 2.35,3.65 and 492 million yuan), and the corresponding EPS is 1.26,1.80,2.46 yuan (the original value is 1.18,1.84,2.47 yuan). It is expected that the company's future performance will grow steadily. With reference to the comparable company valuation, the company will be given 30x PE, corresponding to a 22-year EPS,6 target price of 54 yuan per share, maintaining a "strong push" rating.
Risk tips: Internet of things demand is lower than expected, the epidemic caused supply chain risk, product prices decline and so on.