Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, realizing operating income of 1.824 billion yuan (+ 33.69%), net profit of 446 million yuan (+ 29.87%) attributable to shareholders of listed companies, and net profit of 410 million yuan (+ 26.22%) attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-shareholders.
Pemetrexed grew steadily and the second-tier varieties began to increase. From a product point of view, the revenue of Pemetrexed in 2021 was 1.447 billion yuan (+ 17.09%), maintaining a steady growth. Oxaliplatin injection, docetaxel injection, paclitaxel injection and bendamustine hydrochloride for injection were selected in the fifth batch of national collection, and the standard has been implemented since September 2021 and entered the dose period. Among them, docetaxel income was 151 million yuan (+ 64.68%), oxaliplatin injection income was 77 million yuan. Considering the limited time for collection and implementation in 2021, we believe that the above varieties are expected to grow rapidly in 2022.
Azacytidine has an income of 105 million yuan (+ 487.69%). This product is the third batch of collected varieties in the country and will continue to maintain a trend of rapid growth in 2021.
The echelon of domestic products is constantly improving, and it is expected to ensure the sustained growth of performance with the help of collection. In 2021, the company registered and approved four varieties, including oxaliplatin injection, bendamustine hydrochloride for injection, irinotecan hydrochloride injection and palonosetron hydrochloride injection. Bortezomib for injection and levetiracetam concentrated solution for injection have been approved to market since 2022, and 11 varieties are still in the stage of registration and approval in China. The varieties declared by the company in China are of large market scale, high technical difficulty, and are expected to purchase products with volume in the case of less competition, and it is expected that they will still have good profitability after collection.
The investment in R & D has increased, and the layout of innovative drugs has become clear gradually. In 2021, the company's R & D expenditure was 248 million yuan (+ 179.6%), accounting for 13.61% of operating income. Among them, 75.5822 million yuan was invested in innovative drug research and development (+ 720.51%). By the end of 2021, the company is studying more than 80 projects, including 10 first-class innovative drug projects. In terms of generic drugs, in addition to continuing to promote the research and development of injections, cyclophosphamide for injection, as well as complex injections and other key projects, such as paclitaxel albumin injection, Gosserrelin acetate sustained-release implant, blue peptide acetate sustained-release preparation, doxorubicin hydrochloride liposome injection, iron injection, etc., are expected to be registered at home and abroad in 2022. A kind of innovative drug HY-0003 contrast agent is expected to be applied for clinical application by the end of 2022, and HY-0002 is expected to declare clinical application at the beginning of 2023. The layout of the company's innovative drugs is gradually clear.
The substantial increase in overseas income is expected to become a new performance growth point. In 2021, the company's overseas income will be 67.29 million yuan (+ 143.96%), which is expected to be mainly driven by the growth of varieties such as azacytidine. SEACROSS PHARMACEUTICALS LTD (British Haiyue), a subsidiary responsible for drug sales in the UK and Europe, made a net profit of 14.84 million yuan. At present, 12 varieties have been approved for listing overseas, and a total of 50 new approvals have been approved in 2021. The company has accumulated more than 200 overseas independent and authorized partner approvals, covering 51 countries, an increase of about 15 countries compared with 2020. At the same time, 110 overseas approvals (including independent and authorized partner approvals) have been submitted for registration in 2021, and there are currently more than 160 overseas registrations pending approval. In addition to continuing to cultivate the British market, the company has launched the preparation work for on-site inspection of FDA certification in the United States and carried out cyclophosphamide and other varieties declaration at the same time. With the rich number of overseas products and the expansion of coverage areas, it is expected that the overseas market will become a new performance growth point of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation: as the price of the core variety Peimetrexed has dropped in the collection and renewal bid, we think it will have a certain impact on the company's performance in 2022, but from 2022, the company will enter a period of rapid enrichment of the product line. through the continuous improvement of the product echelon, to ensure that the company continues to have the product with the help of collection and production volume, in the medium and long term, it can effectively disperse the pressure of price reduction of a single variety and ensure sustained growth of performance. At the same time, the rapid growth of the company's overseas income will also become a new performance growth point.
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 18.22,20.91 and 2.525 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of-0.1%, 14.8% and 20.7%. The net profit of home ownership was 4.22,4.79 and 576 million yuan respectively, an increase of-5.3%, 13.5% and 20.2% over the same period last year. Based on the closing price on April 7, the corresponding PE was 27.5,24.3 and 20.2 times, respectively, and the "overweight" rating was given for the first time.
Risk hint: the price reduction of Pemetrexed is higher than expected; the progress of product approval / integration is lower than expected, resulting in delayed release time; overseas registration / market development progress is lower than expected.