Main points of investment:
Income maintained high growth, and operating cash flow further increased. The company's 2021 revenue was 430 million yuan, up 59.7% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 21.96 million yuan, down 29.3% from the same period last year; the non-net profit was-3.91 million yuan; and the net operating cash flow was 120 million yuan, an increase of 33.3% over the same period last year.
Cedarben maintains high growth, and ciglitar sodium provides new increments:
The revenue of Cedar Benamine in 2021 was 390 million yuan, an increase of 58.1% over the same period last year. Cedaben peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) and new indications breast cancer two-wheel drive, of which PTCL indication sales maintained about 39% growth, breast cancer indications increased by about 80%. In 2022, the company will continue to expand the III phase clinical trial of cedarbamide diffuse large B lymphoma (DLBCL) and the preparation of clinical trials such as cedarbamide combined with PD1 in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer.
The company's new diabetes drug, Sieglitazine, has a revenue of 3.26 million yuan in 2021. The product went on sale in October 2021. It is the first PPAR full agonist approved to treat II diabetes in the world. The company adopts the joint marketing model of Metabolic products Division + partner Haizheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company strives to participate in the 2022 Healthcare negotiations and focuses on promoting the product in combination with metformin in the III phase.
Cedar Benamine is progressing smoothly overseas, and the revenue from technology licensing has increased significantly. In 2021, the company's technology licensing revenue was 39.56 million yuan, an increase of 61.9% over the same period last year, due to the increase in licensing income corresponding to the approval of ATL (adult leukemia) and PTCL in Japan. We believe that the overseas listing of cedarben by our partners will provide the company with stable cash flow.
Theoroni is expanding a variety of cancer treatments around the world. Sioronil is a three-way multi-target kinase inhibitor designed and developed by the company, which can selectively inhibit multiple kinase targets such as Aurora B, CSF1R and VEGFR/PDGFR/c-Kit. Sioroni small cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer indications have entered the III phase clinical, in addition, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, triple negative breast cancer, soft tissue sarcoma are carrying out II phase clinical.
Small cell lung cancer II OS data side by side is superior to amlotinib and has been identified as orphan drugs in the United States. The critical III phase trial of sioroni in the treatment of small cell lung cancer was enrolled in the first patient in November 2021 and was recognized as a "breakthrough treatment variety" by CDE. The IND application of this product for monotherapy of small cell lung cancer has been approved by the FDA of the United States, the phase Ib/II clinic is under way, and has been certified as an orphan drug in the United States.
The II phase clinical results of sioronil alone in the treatment of small cell lung cancer showed that the median progression free survival (mPFS), median overall survival (mOS) and objective remission rate (ORR) of sioronil monotherapy for small cell lung cancer treated with ≥ 3 line were 4 months, 8.2 months and 17%, respectively. (the registered clinical trial of alotinib approved for the treatment of small cell lung cancer: mPFS 4.1 months, mOS 7.3 months, ORR 4.9 months) At the same time, a potential biomarker was found, and ORR was significantly increased to 45.5% in patients with this marker mutation.
Profit forecast and valuation. A number of clinical trials are being carried out around the world, and we believe that the revenue of the company in 2022-24 will continue to grow at a high speed with the product listing, and there is some uncertainty at the profit end affected by R & D investment. We estimate that the company's revenue in 2022-24 will be 690 million yuan, 1.07 billion yuan and 1.77 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 60.9%, 54.5% and 65.4% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of 2022-24 is 52.79 million yuan, 120 million yuan and 250 million yuan respectively.
We assume that the sustainable growth rate is 1.25% less than 1.75% and the WACC value is 8.05% and 8.55%, then the reasonable market value range of the company's DCF is 150.93-17.657 billion yuan, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 36.75-42.99 yuan per share, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint: the progress of R & D is not as expected, and the progress of commercialization is not as expected.
