Main points of investment:
Announcement: in 2021, the company achieved 3.23 billion yuan in income, + 28.5% year-on-year, 490 million yuan in net profit, + 28.1% in the same period last year, and 370 million yuan in non-net profit, + 15.8% in the same period last year. 21Q4 realized income of 850 million yuan, year-on-year + 11.1%, month-on-month-1.5%, return-to-mother net profit of 130 million yuan, year-on-year + 15.3%, month-on-month + 4.4%, deduction of non-net profit of 80 million yuan,-21.7%, month-on-month-23.5%. The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations.
The net interest rate in 2021 is unchanged from the same period last year, the effect of price increase in 2022 is gradually apparent, and profitability is expected to improve. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 29.6%, down 2.9pct from the same period last year, and the net profit rate was 15.1%, which was basically the same as the same period last year. Although the cost of aluminum foil and electricity increased in 2021, the decrease in gross profit margin was offset by savings in expense rates and an increase in income from changes in fair value during the period, and net profit margin remained stable for the whole of 2021. The 21Q4 industry continues to face rising costs such as electricity and aluminum foil, and the company's gross margin fell 0.6pct to 28.0% month-on-month. At present, the price increase has transferred part of the cost pressure, and the gross profit margin of 22Q1 is expected to improve significantly.
Aihua Group is the leader of the domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry and the fourth market share in the world. The company is one of the few enterprises with complete industry chain of "smooth foil + etched foil + chemical foil + electrolyte + aluminum electrolytic capacitor" in the global capacitor industry. According to Paumanok,2019, the company's global market share increased to 8% from less than 5% in 2015, ranking fourth in the world and first in the country. The high-end market of aluminum electrolytic capacitors requires high technology, which is dominated by Japanese enterprises, and the four giants of the Japanese system have a combined global share of more than 50%.
With the transformation of the downstream application field of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, the income of industrial control increased by 73% in 2021, and the proportion of income rose to 23%. In 2021, the revenue of lighting, industrial control and power / electronics was 700 million yuan, 700 million yuan and 1.67 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 17.2%, 73.0% and 27.9% over the same period last year. In 2021, the proportion of industrial control in the total income of aluminum electrolytic capacitors increased to 22.9% by 5.3pct. In 2021, the company focuses on emerging markets such as home appliances, industry and new energy vehicles, and has entered the enterprise supply chain at the head of the vehicle and photovoltaic market. The company's new energy vehicle products are mainly used in OBC, charging pile, main drive electric control system and traditional vehicle electronic control system.
The new photovoltaic and industrial control capacity in 2022 will be released one after another. In 2021, the production capacity of horn and bolt products will be further expanded, with a total production capacity of more than 15 billion units. In 2018, the investment project ox horn capacitor expansion is expected to increase the monthly production capacity from 650000 to 4 million. The project reached its intended state of use in September 2021. Most of the company's new production capacity is for photovoltaic and industrial control applications, and it is expected that production capacity will be released one after another in 2022, and the new market will accelerate the expansion, leading to a continued increase in the share of industrial income.
Actively expand production and turn into foil to enhance the independent supply of raw materials. In order to ensure the security of the supply chain, the company plans to continue to expand the production of aluminum foil, and increase the self-sufficiency of high-pressure aluminum foil, reduce supply costs and ease supply pressure. After the second phase of production expansion, Xinjiang Rongze aluminum foil has a total production capacity of 9 million square meters, and the third phase of the project with an annual production capacity of 4.5 million square meters has been put into production in October 21, with an estimated annual output value of 300 million yuan.
Adjust the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating: it is optimistic that the company will actively transform to the industrial control aluminum electrolytic capacitor field, and its profitability will be improved in the past 22 years. Raise 22-23 net profit forecast to 630 million yuan, 780 million yuan (original value 580 million yuan, 680 million yuan), increase 24-year net profit forecast 890 million yuan, current market capitalization corresponding to 22 PE 17 times, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in electricity prices and aluminum foil prices; fluctuations in consumer electronics demand; and the progress of new market development is not up to expectations.