Event: the company recently announced its 2021 results, KuaiBao. The company expects to achieve an operating income of 1.615 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 16.53% over the same period last year; a net profit of 122 million yuan, an increase of 0.81% over the same period last year; and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 19.9% from the same period last year.
Revenue achieved year-on-year growth, the proportion of transmission and new energy business further increased, a number of factors led to lower-than-expected profit growth. The company's revenue in 2021 increased by 16.5% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the advance layout of the company in the field of new energy automobile parts and the improvement of market penetration of transmission parts business. According to the announcement data, we estimate that the business of new energy automobile parts and transmission parts will account for about 35.0% and 20.0% respectively in 2021, an increase of 5.0% and 3.7% respectively over 2020, and the product structure will continue to be optimized. The year-on-year decline in non-homed net profit is mainly due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the rapid rise in international sea freight, the appreciation of the RMB and other factors.
The business strategy is stable, and the medium-and long-term growth logic of the two core businesses of transmission and new energy remains unchanged. The development path of the company is clear, with the transmission business as the growth bottom line and the new energy vehicle parts business as the growth line. (1) Transmission business: DCT valve plate is the company's advantage product, in addition to supporting independent car companies mainly through BergWarner, the company also got direct supply orders from BYD, Great Wall and other customers. Benefiting from the increase in independent DCT penetration, the company's transmission business will maintain high growth. (2) New energy business: the company has been ploughing the new energy field for many years and has strong technical research and development strength. At present, the company's products have covered the three electricity system, full of orders on hand. With the release of capacity, the new energy business will increase rapidly.
Accelerate the layout of integrated die-casting, open up a new space for development. Integrated die-casting scheme is a new track for the innovation of aluminum die-casting industry. The company has technical reserves in large new energy aluminum castings, and earlier purchased large tonnage die casting machines for layout. At present, large die casting machines are mainly used for "multi-in-one" components, battery components and car body components related business. According to the announcement information, the company 5000T die casting machine has been put into use and mass production, 6000T and 8000T die casting machine will also come to the factory one after another.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the company's market competitiveness and high growth in new energy, transmission parts and other core business. Taking into account the impact of the increase in raw material prices and freight costs, we adjust the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.22,2.01 and 315 million yuan respectively (original value 1.62,2.47 and 334 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.61,1.00,1.57 yuan (original value 0.81,1.23,1.66 yuan). The closing price on April 6, 2022 corresponds to the PE value of 39, 24 and 15 times in 2021-2023, respectively. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: passenger car sales are not as expected; upstream raw material prices are rising; lack of core recovery is not as expected; new capacity construction progress is not as expected.