Performance review
2021 annual results are in line with market expectations
CICC GLP Warehouse Logistics REIT announced its annual results for 2021 (the reporting period is from June 7, 2021 to December 31, 2021): during the reporting period, the fund level realized operating income of 196 million yuan, profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of 139 million yuan, and annual available distribution amount of 151 million yuan, in line with expectations.
At the end of the period, the occupancy rate of the underlying assets, the average rent and the evaluation all increased. The average occupancy rate of the seven bids held by the fund at the end of 2021 was 98.78%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points over the end of last year. Among the tenants, transportation, commercial and professional services, software and services accounted for 43.2%, 31.4% and 6.3%, respectively. The year-end effective rental unit price increased by 7.19% to 42.92 yuan / square meter / month (excluding tax, including management fee). According to DTZ's evaluation report, the fair value of assets at the end of 2021 was 5.42 billion yuan (a small increase of 1.4% from the estimated value of 5.346 billion yuan at the end of last year), with an average unit price of 7688 yuan per square meter.
The operation of assets was stable as a whole during the reporting period. In 2021, the total income at the fund level was 209 million yuan (we had expected the theoretical operating income for the whole year to be 370 million yuan), and the net cash flow generated by operating activities was 146 million yuan. The amount available for distribution is 151 million yuan (we previously expected that the theoretical available distribution amount for the whole year will reach 251 million yuan); during the period, the net profit margin before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization at the fund level is 67%.
Trend of development
The future business performance is expected to continue a sound trend, the medium-term dimension suggests that we should pay attention to the potential of fund-raising. We believe that the operation of the Fund's assets is sound, the overall lease maturity ratio can be controlled in 2022, and the certainty of fulfilling the expected amount available for allocation is still strong. Looking forward, we suggest that we should pay close attention to the design and promotion of regulatory mechanisms for fund-raising.
Profit forecast and valuation
Keep the forecast of the amount available for distribution of the fund in 2022-2023 unchanged, the holding rating and the 12-month target total yield of 5.2% unchanged, corresponding to the expected dividend yield of 3.45% and 1.77% price upward space (we give the fund a fair price of 1.1 times NAV at the end of 2022). We are still optimistic about the allocation value of warehousing and logistics targets.
Risk.
The quality of asset management has declined; the capitalization rate of warehousing and logistics assets may rise due to the faster-than-expected pace of overseas interest rate increases; and the worse-than-expected deterioration of the epidemic has led to lower-than-expected contract renewal in 2022.