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富途研选 | 里程碑！国产存储DRAM正式投片

Futu Research Selection | Milestone! Domestic storage DRAM officially launched

富途资讯 ·  Jul 23, 2018 19:51

Edited from: founder Securities: semiconductor Series of Special reports (2): analysis of supply and demand of memory chips & Zhongtai Securities: domestic storage ushered in a key milestone, TSMC Prospect leads the rebound of consumer electronics

On July 16th, Hefei Changxin DRAM project was released for the first time, and domestic storage ushered in a key milestone. In 2017, the global semiconductor memory market reached US $128 billion, accounting for 30 per cent of global semiconductor output. In the next three years, the DRAM compound growth rate will exceed 45%.

1. The semiconductor storage industry is growing at a high speed, and there is a huge space for domestic replacement.

In 2017, the unit price of memory products rose sharply, and the memory industry formed three relatively independent markets: DRAM chip, NANDFlash chip and special memory.According to IHSMARKET, the DRAM market reached $72.2 billion in 2017, up 74% from $41.5 billion in 2016. The market for NandFlash flash memory chips reached US $53.8 billion in 2017, up 46.2% from US $36.8 billion in 2016.

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China imported US $88.921 billion worth of memory in 2017, an increase of 39.56% from US $63.714 billion in 2016.Samsung, Hynix and Micron monopolize more than 90% of the global DRAM market.The pattern of oligopoly makes downstream customers have no bargaining power in the face of rising prices of memory chips.In the global NandFlash market, Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Toshiba, sandisk and Intel basically monopolize 99% of the market share.

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2. Demand side: in the next three years, the compound growth rate of DRAM will exceed 45%.

DRAM memory chips are mainly used in mobile phones, servers, PC, TV and other applications.In the era of AI, the demand for DRAM is surging, and the demand for DRAM configuration of AI servers is huge.The amount of DRAM used by a single AI server is up to 2.5TB, while the current amount of DRAM used by an ordinary server is only 145GB.The large-scale popularity of AI servers will greatly promote the growth of the DRAM market. Mobile phone DRAM has entered the 8GB era, and the trend of capacity expansion is still the same.The average configured capacity of the mobile phone DRAM in 2017 is 2.7GB, and it is expected that by 2021, the average capacity will reach 4.8GB.

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The data economy promotes the rapid growth of NAND storage.The downstream applications of NANDFLASH are mainly the storage needs of mobile devices and SSD solid state drives, which account for about 90% of the NANDFLASH market demand.According to Micron's data for the second quarter of 2018, NANDFLASH storage capacity demand will grow by 40% CAGR 45% over the next three years.The rapid growth of drive storage is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the mainstream configuration of mobile phones has gradually changed from 16GB to 64GB; on the other hand, the permeability of SSD solid state disk is increasing rapidly.

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3. Supply side: in the era of 3DNAND, memory chips are expected to change.

NAND memory chips are rapidly turning to 3DNAND products. In the future, except for automotive memory chips, which are still dominated by 2DNAND products, the storage of PC, servers, mobile phones and other applications will all turn to 3DNAND products. 64-layer 3DNAND is an important turning point in the flash memory industry, and the cost per bit capacity of 3D storage is beginning to be lower than that of flat 2D products.

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4. the construction of domestic memory chip project is progressing smoothly.

The mass production of the three major memory chip enterprises in Chinese mainland region is progressing smoothly. The construction of storage plants for Yangtze River Storage, Hefei Changxin and Fujian Jinhua has been completed and is expected to be in the second half of this year.

The year will enter the stage of mass production. In addition, the land planning of Ziguang's storage project in Nanjing has been implemented and is expected to enter the construction phase. The first production conference of Hefei Changxin DRAM project was held in Hefei on July 16th, and the domestic storage ushered in a key milestone.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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