Event
On April 4, 2022, the company announced that its independently developed COVID-19 mRNA vaccine had been approved by the State Drug Administration for clinical trials.
Comment
With the clinical approval of mRNA vaccine, the progress of COVID-19-related vaccine layout was accelerated. (1) according to the company's website, CANSINOBIO novel coronavirus mRNA vaccine is a new generation of vaccine with better protective effect against existing mutants, which is intended to be used to prevent COVID-19 in clinic. The results of preclinical studies show that the vaccine can induce high titer neutralizing antibodies against a variety of important variants identified by the World Health Organization (WHO), including the current epidemic strain Omicron, which has a stronger broad spectrum and can more effectively protect the body from the infection of existing mutants. (2) the company laid out mRNA technology platform in 2018, and currently has a number of innovative preventive vaccine product pipelines, which store patents, processes, mRNA sequence design, etc.; the mRNA universal process developed by the company is expected to shorten product development time and help to scale up production. The mRNA vaccine production room is expected to be delivered by the end of 2022, laying the foundation for large-scale industrial production.
Focus on two possible catalysts in 2022: Keweisha was approved to be included in the EUL list of WHO, and inhaled form China was approved as EUA. The main results are as follows: (1) the company adenovirus vector COVID-19 vaccine has been conditionally listed in China and approved for sequential enhanced vaccination. in addition, it has been approved by EUA in many foreign countries. The company has accepted the verification of the emergency use list (EUL) by WHO, and if approved by WHO, orders in overseas markets are expected to increase. (2) Keweisha inhaled dosage form showed good safety and immunogenicity when it was used for cross inoculation. Data published in the Lancet showed that antibody levels at 14 and 28 days after inhalation enhancement were 6.7-10.7 times higher than those in the control group.
The R & D strength is determined, and five major technology platforms have been built for more than ten years. The company has established five core technology platforms including adenovirus vector and mRNA technology. Sales of the first domestic ACWY135 serotype meningitis MCV4 vaccine are expected to peak at 20-3 billion yuan. In cooperation with Pfizer Inc, Pfizer Inc is granted the exclusive right to promote sales in Greater China.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
We maintain the profit forecast that the company's annual revenue in 2022-23-24 is expected to be RMB 100 million on 20-22-25, a year-on-year increase of-53%, 10% and 11%. The net profit of the parent company is RMB 33.0 million, and the current stock price is times higher than that of 87-81-73 corresponding to 2022-23-24. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The change of epidemic situation at home and abroad affects the income of the main business, and the EUL process of entering WHO is not up to the expected risk of affecting overseas vaccine sales.