New housing turnover and transaction area still have a large space for development in the future, real estate developers Shangyun is the trend of the times. 1) the concentration of real estate developers has increased, and the competition has become more fierce, so reducing costs and improving efficiency has become a common demand. 2) according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the turnover of new homes in China increased from about 8.7 trillion yuan in 2015 to 16 trillion yuan in 2019. Driven by the rising level of urbanization in China, the emergence of demand for improved housing and the demand for improved housing quality, as a pillar of the national economy, the scale of China's real estate market is huge. Frost Sullivan expects the turnover of new homes to reach about 21.6 trillion yuan by 2024. 3) compared with the United States, the world's largest enterprise software solution market, China's real estate industry chain software solution market still has a lot of room for development. 4) the ability of technology, products and services has increased, and cloud transformation has improved the operational efficiency of real estate companies.
Star enterprises in the vertical field, Ming Yuan Cloud Group has an absolute competitive advantage and is expected to be "left" in the future reshuffle of the real estate industry. 1) Ming Yuan Cloud Group ranks first in the industry no matter in the whole market of real estate software solutions or in the local deployment of enterprise management software and SaaS product market. 2) ERP and SaaS business two-wheel drive contributed to the rapid growth of the company's performance, cloud transformation achieved remarkable results, SaaS business accounted for 61.2%. 3) ERP: with the rapid development of value-added services, ERP business provides sufficient financial support for the company's SaaS development. As the absolute leader in the real estate field, local and overseas ERP listed companies do not constitute a direct competitive relationship with Ming Yuan Cloud Group. 4) SaaS: the transformation process of Mingyuan Yunyun is accelerated, and the ARPU value of revenue is double rising. The company has a broad, high-quality customer base, low user turnover rate and high LTV/CAC, deep into all aspects of developer operation, first-mover advantage to gain a firm foothold.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 25.87,30.45 and 3.519 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be-6.60,3.49 and 51 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of-0.34,0.18,0.03 yuan. Ming Yuan Cloud Group, as the leader in the real estate SaaS industry, has a stable customer retention rate and a rapid customer growth year by year, giving the company 9 times PS in 2022, and the corresponding target price is HK $14.08. Give a buy rating.
Risk hints: the growth of the real estate industry is lower than expected; the promotion of digitization and SaaS is not as expected; the impact of macro policies