Core ideas:
Event: on April 4, the company announced that novel coronavirus's mRNA vaccine had been approved by the State Drug Administration for clinical trials. The results of preclinical studies show that the vaccine can induce high titer neutralizing antibodies against a variety of important mutant strains identified by WHO, has a stronger broad spectrum, and can more effectively protect the body from the infection of the existing mutant strains. The company is laying out a variety of innovative preventive vaccine product lines with independent intellectual property rights, focusing on the development of preventive and therapeutic products.
MRNA technology platform has multiple advantages in dealing with pandemic infectious diseases. In the past two decades, severe infectious diseases such as SARS, Ebola and COVID-19 have emerged. to deal with pandemic infectious diseases quickly, it is necessary to develop related vaccines and vaccinate them on a large scale. For the vaccine of the traditional technology path, the main obstacle to its research and development is not the feasibility and effectiveness of its development path, but the ability of low-cost, more rapid research and development and large-scale production. MRNA vaccine has shown significant advantages in research and development process, production cycle, immune effect and so on.
MRNA technology is a universal research and development platform, which is expected to subvert the traditional vaccine research and development path. MRNA vaccine has the following core advantages: (1) it can express any kind of protein; (2) it can express multiple proteins at the same time, and it is expected to develop multivalent vaccine and co-vaccine; (3) it can simulate the process of natural infection of virus and cause strong humoral and cellular immunity; (4) the production cycle is short; (5) it is a general platform technology; (6) standardized production and low site requirements. (7) produce all products in the same line and share the same set of quality system, production equipment and operators. MRNA technology is a universal R & D platform, which has great commercial value.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Regardless of the follow-up commercialization of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, we estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.915 billion yuan, 1.863 billion yuan and 1.55 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the judgment on the reasonable value of A shares and H shares of 270.92 yuan per share and H shares of 238.91 Hong Kong dollars per share, and giving A shares and H shares a buy rating.
Risk hint. The progress of vaccine research and development is not up to expectations, and the sales of COVID-19 vaccine are not up to expectations.