Event: the company released its annual report in 2021 on the evening of March 30, 2022. In 2021, the company realized operating income of 7.214 billion yuan (year-on-year + 42.33%) and net profit belonging to the parent company of 151 million yuan (year-on-year + 14.17%). Deducting non-return net profit of 42.59 million yuan (year-on-year + 33.63%)
The delivery of trainer aircraft and defense products has reached a new high in recent years, and a phased breakthrough has been achieved in the research and development of a series of extended products of higher education aircraft. According to the annual report, in 21, the company realized operating income of 7.214 billion yuan, + 42.33% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to the parent company was 151 million yuan, + 14.17% over the same period last year. The gross profit margin of sales is 2.73% (- 0.92pct); the net profit margin is 2.10% (- 0.54pct), mainly because the materials and external costs of aviation products are 49.95% higher than the same period last year, accounting for 91.97% of the manufacturing costs of aviation products. The 21-year R & D cost is 84 million yuan, which is + 42.37% compared with the same period last year. The company's model research and development is progressing smoothly, and the research and development of a number of extended products of the higher education machine series have achieved major stage goals. Among them, in 21 years, the revenue of trainers reached 2.377 billion yuan, + 13.52% compared with the same period last year, and the revenue of other aviation products reached 4.686 billion yuan, + 74.23% compared with the same period last year. The main series of products, such as trainers and defense products, reached new highs in recent years.
The contract debt is + 39148.24% compared with the same period last year, which shows that the order is booming. The company's 21-year contract liability of 6.848 billion yuan is mainly due to the increase in advance receipts. The inventory is 3.003 billion yuan, + 11.96% compared with the same period last year, and the products account for 57.23% of the inventory amount, which provides an effective support for future operating income. At the same time, the company further focused on the main business, completed the mixed ownership reform of the holding subsidiary Jiangxi Hongdu International Mechanical and Electrical Co., Ltd., reduced the company's shareholding ratio from 85% to 40%, and better concentrated resources on the main industry. it will help to enhance the scientific research and production capacity of national defense equipment. Sales are mainly driven by related party transactions. the sales of the first five customers in 21 years were 7.2 billion yuan, of which the related party sales were 7.133 billion yuan, accounting for 98.87% of the total annual sales, of which 6.905 billion yuan were sold to Hongdu Aviation, + 49.64% compared with the same period last year. According to the announcement of related party transactions, the amount is expected to reach 11.3 billion yuan in 22 years.
With the acceleration of solid conversion in 21 years, the release of production capacity is imminent. The proportion of projects under construction in the company's 19/20/21H1/21 to fixed assets is 130.08%, 21.49%, 23.44%, 3.13%, 3.13%, and the proportion of projects under construction in 2021 is-83.24%, mainly due to the consolidation of some projects under construction. 21 Annual report at the end of the year, the progress of the construction of the factory building in the north and south of the aviation city is 91.40% and 83.97% respectively, and the production capacity is expected to be released. We expect the relevant performance to be released gradually in various stages in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating. (1) PE valuation method, we expect the company's EPS to be 0.24 / 0.31 / 0.42 yuan per share in 2022-2024. Combined with comparable company valuation, we give the company a 100 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 22.80ly24.00 yuan. (2) by PS valuation method, we estimate that the sales revenue per share from 2022 to 2024 is 17.2927.2539.41 yuan. Combined with the comparable company valuation, we give the company 1.5-1.7 times PS valuation in 2022, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 25.94-29.39 yuan per share. Based on the above valuation method, we give the company a reasonable value range of 22.80-29.39 yuan per share and give it a "better than the big market" rating.
Risk tips: market competition risk; order and production less than expected risk and so on.
