This report is read as follows:
The profit level of the company's main types of paper remains robust, the scale of financial leasing continues to shrink, and the cost rate level is optimized; the high pulp self-sufficiency rate effectively reduces the risk of pulp price fluctuation, and the leading advantage of scale effect capacity expansion is significant.
Summary:
Maintain the overweight rating. Considering that the international paste price has risen sharply since the beginning of the year under the influence of geopolitics, overseas strikes, shipping obstruction and other factors, it is expected to have a certain impact on the company's performance, reducing the EPS in 2022 to 0.70 (- 0.77) / 0.75 (- 0.86) / 0.86 RMB. The current market capitalization is about 4 times of PE in 2022.
The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the performance is slightly under pressure in the second half of the year due to weaker demand. In 2021, the company completed machine paper production of 5.5 million tons (- 4.68%), sales of 5.45 million tons (- 2.85%), revenue of 32.735 billion yuan, an increase of 7.38%, a net profit of 2.066 billion yuan, an increase of 20.65%, a year-on-year increase of 0.51pct to 22.95%, and a net profit increase of 0.13pct to 6.38%. Among them, affected by the fluctuation of paper price, the rise of wood pulp cost and the weakening of terminal demand, Q4 single-quarter revenue and return net profit decreased compared with the same period last year, and profits were slightly under pressure.
The profit level of major types of paper remains robust, and the level of expense rate has been optimized. In 2021, the prices of coal, chemicals and other commodities rose sharply, shipping costs increased significantly, and the cost side of the paper industry was under pressure. however, the company has achieved relatively steady growth through measures such as forest-pulp-paper integration to improve the supply chain system, strengthen cost management and open up the market to maximize the adverse effects of external fluctuations. The gross profit margin of the company mechanism paper overall increased to 23.50% compared with the same period last year, in which the gross profit margin of white card paper and coated paper increased by 4.68pct and 6.07 pct respectively; the rates of sales, management and financial expenses decreased by 0.08pct, 0.48pct and 1.11pct respectively compared with the same period last year, the scale of financial leasing continued to shrink, and the financial structure was significantly optimized.
The high self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp effectively reduces the risk of pulp price fluctuation, and the leading advantage of scale effect capacity expansion is significant.
The company has an annual pulp and paper production capacity of more than 11 million tons, with significant pulp-paper integration and scale advantages, with a self-made wood pulp production capacity of 4.3 million tons, ensuring that the company's paper products gross profit margin continues to lead the industry, and the pulping wood chip price is relatively stable. the advantages of bulk material procurement and the use of supporting logistics services can greatly reduce the transportation costs of raw materials and finished products. Since the beginning of 2022, international pulp prices have risen sharply under the influence of multiple factors, domestic finished paper price increases have occurred frequently, the company has a high self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp, and the profit level is expected to improve month-on-month under the overall rise in paper prices.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, market fluctuation and industry competition aggravating risk, financial risk brought by financial leasing business.