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警惕!港台地区发现新变异病毒病例!传播速度再增9.8%,影响有多大?

Watch out! New cases of mutated virus found in Hong Kong and Taiwan! If the transmission speed is increased by another 9.8%, what is the impact?

券商中國 ·  Apr 3, 2022 08:07

Source: brokerage China

637 cases of XE infection in the UK have suddenly become a hot search.

Novel coronavirus's another reorganized mutant strain is attracting market attention. On April 2, Luo Yijun, deputy head of the medical strain team of the Taiwan Command Center, confirmed that there was a case of XE variant strain in Taiwan, China, according to a report by the Taiwan United News Network. In addition, Zhang Zhujun, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of the Center for Health Protection of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Special Administrative region Government, revealed at a press conference on April 1 that the team of the University of Hong Kong found that two passengers arriving in Hong Kong in early February this year had been infected with Omicron mixed virus XE.

On the topic of # new crown virus strain XE#, it was once top of Weibo Corp's hot search list. The topic was read more than 730 million and discussed more than 70, 000 on April 1. According to World Health Organization (WHO) 's report, a recombinant strain called XE found in the UK has been reported and identified.

At present, the faster spread of Omicron BA.2 mutant is becoming the most mainstream strain in the world. But positive signs are also emerging, and on Wednesday, the World Health Organization unveiled a new strategic plan to end the emergency phase of the global epidemic by 2022.

Cases of new crown variant strain XE found in Hong Kong and Taiwan

The new Omicron mutant XE (the recombinant strain of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2) continues to attract attention, and related cases have also been found in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

According to a report by Taiwan's United News Network on April 2, Luo Yijun, deputy head of the medical strain team of the Taiwan Command Center, confirmed on the 2nd that there was a case of XE variant virus in Taiwan, which was a woman who entered the Czech Republic on March 18. it was found to be positive after landing and inspection, which is an asymptomatic case. At present, there is little data about this strain, it is difficult to know whether the transmission rate of XE strain is high or not, it is necessary to continue to observe.

At the same time, this new mutant strain was also discovered in Hong Kong. Zhang Zhujun, director of the Infectious Diseases Division of the Centre for Health Protection of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government, revealed at a press conference on the epidemic that the team of the University of Hong Kong found that in early February this year, two passengers arrived in Hong Kong were infected with the Omicron mixed virus XE, but fortunately they did not flow into the community.

The official news about the new coronavirus strain XE originated from a technical briefing issued by the UK Health and Safety Agency (UKHSA) on March 25, which confirmed for the first time that 637 cases of XE infection have been confirmed in the UK and there are signs of community transmission.

The new crown virus strain XE was first discovered in the United Kingdom on January 19 this year. XE is a recombinant of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2. Most of the genome of the recombinant belongs to the S gene of BA.2.

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The latest data as of March 16, 2022 showed that the spread rate of XE recombinant was 9.8% higher than that of Omicron BA.2 mutant. This estimate is likely to change with the addition of new data. British scientists say it is not clear whether it has a real growth advantage. So far, there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about the infectivity, pathogenicity or vaccine effectiveness of the strain.

XE, a new variant of COVID-19, rushed to hot search.

On April 1, a topic about # new crown virus strain XE# topped Weibo Corp's most popular search list, with more than 730 million readers and more than 70, 000 discussions that day.

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In addition, the topic that COVID-19 XE# has been diagnosed by 637 people in the UK has also been hotly discussed. According to the announcement of the British Health and Safety Agency (UKHSA) on March 25th, 637 cases of XE infection have been confirmed in the UK.

In fact, COVID-19 's recombinant strain XE suddenly attracted attention because of a report released by the World Health Organization on March 30th. A recombinant strain called XE found in the UK has reported and identified more than 600 gene sequences, the report said. Early investigations showed that compared with the current global dominant Omicron BA.2 strain, the growth rate advantage of this new strain is about 10%, but because the data sample is too small, whether it will become a potential threat in the future needs to be further observed.

But the Health and Safety Agency warned that there were signs of community-based transmission of the XE recombinant in the UK, although the number of cases was less than 1 per cent of the total number of sequenced cases. At the same time, World Health Organization (WHO) also warned European countries not to underestimate or underestimate the danger of recombinant strains.

In fact, XE is not the first recombinant strain to be found. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the emergence of COVID-19 recombinant strains is not uncommon, but most of the recombinant strains have gradually died out because they do not have an advantage in transmission.

Reviewing the whole process of the global pandemic, Alpha has replaced the original wild type, Delta has replaced Alpha, Omicron BA.1 has replaced Delta, and now Omicron BA.2 is replacing BA.1 as the main epidemic variant in the world.

It was found that the new mutant should have two conditions at the same time to replace the old strain, and the new variant should have stronger transmission ability and escape the immunity formed by the old strain. So far, all authoritative research results have confirmed that the transmission speed of Omicron BA.2 mutant is significantly stronger, and the immune escape is different from that of BA.1.

Tan Desai, director general of World Health Organization (WHO), said that existing research shows that what is most likely is that novel coronavirus will continue to evolve, but as human immunity is enhanced by vaccination or infection with the virus, the severity of novel coronavirus's disease will decrease over time.

Can the state of emergency end in 2022?

At present, the faster-spreading Omicron BA.2 mutant is becoming the most mainstream strain in the world. The epidemic is still high in most European countries, and the daily number of new cases in France, Germany and the United Kingdom is still astonishing. In addition, the epidemic in South Korea and Japan in Asia is also spreading rapidly, among which South Korea has more than 320000 confirmed cases a day, which is the "epicenter" of the current global epidemic.

But positive signs are also emerging, and on Wednesday, the World Health Organization unveiled a new strategic plan to end the emergency phase of the global epidemic by 2022.

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World Health Organization (WHO) said that the pandemic is still a serious global crisis, but if some key measures are implemented quickly, a way to end the global emergency phase can be found.

In this new strategic plan, World Health Organization (WHO) put forward two key goals: to reduce the number of novel coronavirus infections, and to effectively diagnose and treat confirmed patients, thereby reducing the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 infection.

At the same time, in order to accelerate the achievement of the above two key goals, World Health Organization (WHO) said that there is a need to increase monitoring and regulation, promote global vaccine equity, strengthen health care systems and supplies, and upgrade research and data analysis.

One of World Health Organization (WHO) 's key measures is that the global vaccination rate has reached 70%, but the vaccination rate in some poor countries is still well below that target. According to statistics, among the 194 member countries of World Health Organization (WHO), 21 countries have a vaccination rate of less than 10% and 75 countries have a vaccination rate of less than 40%.

World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tan Desai said in the letter that more than 6 million people around the world have died of novel coronavirus, with daily deaths still recorded, and are now at a critical and dangerous moment in the fight against COVID-19 's epidemic.

Nevertheless, Tan Desai said that as the spread continues, new variants will emerge, and although it is impossible to accurately predict how novel coronavirus will evolve in the future, effective actions can still be taken to end the global new crown disease epidemic.

From World Health Organization (WHO) 's strategic plan and Tan Desai's speech, it can be found that COVID-19 vaccination is still a key weapon in the fight against the epidemic. According to the data released by national research institutions, although novel coronavirus mutates very fast, it can induce extensive protection against the high probability of Omicron BA.2 and other mutants in the case of extensive vaccination with COVID-19 vaccine.

Is there a widespread outbreak of bird flu in the United States, and inflation is about to explode?

At present, the United States is facing the rapid spread of bird flu. As of March 30, local time, 23 states in the United States have broken out highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, which is the most serious outbreak of bird flu since 2015.

The latest USDA data show that highly pathogenic bird flu has been found in chicken flocks in North Carolina, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio and Wyoming. Since mid-January, the bird flu virus has been found in 23 states and infected nearly 17 million poultry, causing a total of nearly 11.8 million laying hens (accounting for 3 per cent of the total number of laying hens in the United States).

Bird flu, which is sweeping the United States, is leading to a rise in egg prices before Easter and poses a growing threat to US poultry exports. at present, some countries have temporarily banned imports of poultry meat from states in the United States where bird flu has occurred. Major buyers such as Mexico, China and Cuba are likely to reduce imports of poultry from the United States.

At present, economists at the United States Department of Agriculture are closely watching the possible impact of the bird flu outbreak on food inflation. They expect US poultry prices to rise 6.5 per cent year-on-year in 2022, almost three times the increase in previous years.

In fact, at present, inflationary pressure in the United States is still relatively high. The annual rate of core PCE price index (the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about) released on Thursday night recorded 5.4%, the highest since 1983. In addition, the annual rate of PCE price index in the United States recorded 6.4% in February, the highest level since 1982.

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It is worth noting that the PCE inflation figures released this time measure the situation before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. In fact, US inflation is expected to continue to rise sharply in March, taking into account the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the continued soaring global commodity prices and the supply chain crisis.

Further price increases have heightened concerns and further confirmed the Fed's call for a more aggressive rate hike. Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck said on Tuesday that he would be open to raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May if recent data showed a rise in inflation.

Traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points by the end of the year, meaning at least two meetings need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Bond market pricing seems to agree, and some of the current yield curve is either temporarily upside down or close to upside down, heralding the possibility of a recession.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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