Main points of investment:
COVID-19 vaccine is commercialized globally, and the company turns a loss into a profit for the first time. The company's 2021 revenue was 4.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17175% over the same period last year; the net profit from its mother was 1.91 billion yuan, deducting 1.8 billion yuan from non-net profit, turning losses into profits for the first time; and the net operating cash flow was 2.05 billion yuan, realizing positive cash flow for the first time. The company's performance in 2021 mainly comes from the emergency conditional listing and emergency use authorization of recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine (type 5 adenovirus vector) in many countries at home and abroad.
The company's COVID-19 vaccine business will usher in "three new":
(1) New orders: in the domestic market, the corporate adenovirus vaccine was approved for sequential enhanced vaccination in February 2022, providing a new increase in performance in 2022. As of March 24, 1.24 billion people had been vaccinated and 670 million people had been vaccinated, of which 12.19 million had been vaccinated sequentially. In overseas markets, corporate adenovirus vaccines have entered the markets of Mexico, Pakistan, Hungary and other countries, and have been approved for sequential enhanced vaccination in Argentina, Malaysia and Indonesia. The company accepted the on-site inspection of World Health Organization (WHO) 's emergency use list in late October 2021, and we believe that this certification will help the company to obtain new overseas orders.
(2) New dosage form: the company develops respiratory mucosal immune dosage form on the basis of adenovirus vector vaccine, which uses aerosol inhalation to inhale respiratory tract and lungs through oral cavity, which can activate mucosal immune response that can not be caused by intramuscular injection. Inhaled Ad5-nCoV has completed the I/II phase of clinical practice.
(3) New platform: the company is developing COVID-19 vaccine through the mRNA technology platform established in Shanghai to obtain the approval of clinical trials of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. We believe that the rapid development of the mRNA platform is conducive to the development of new vaccines against mutated viruses.
The meningococcal conjugate vaccine was successfully approved and worked with Pfizer Inc to promote the domestic market. The company's MCV2 and MCV4 meningococcal conjugate vaccines were approved by the State Drug Administration in June and December 2021 respectively, of which MCV4 is the first MCV4 product approved in China. The company entered into a regional promotion service agreement with Pfizer Inc in China. Considering the necessary processes such as vaccine bidding and access, we conservatively estimate that the product may be commercialized on a large scale in 2022H2.
The pipeline is rich, and the basic vaccination of 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine is completed in III phase. In addition to the above varieties, the company has a total of diphtheria tetanus, pneumonia, tuberculosis, herpes zoster and other 12 indications 17 innovative vaccine product research and development. The company's PCV13i is making rapid progress, and despite the adverse effects of the epidemic, phase III of PCV13i has completed basic immunization and phase III is expected to be completed by 2022.
Profit forecast and valuation. The company's inhaled adenovirus COVID-19 vaccine has completed its II phase, mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is applying for clinical trial approval, and there are great changes in the epidemic situation and COVID-19 vaccine market, so we conservatively assume that the company's revenue in 2022-24 is 2.25 billion, 3.66 billion, 5.34 billion yuan, year-on-year-47.6%, + 62.5%, + 45.7%, corresponding net profit-740 million, 890 million, 2 billion yuan. We expect that there are still great changes in the company's performance in 2022-24, and the R & D pipeline provides more room for growth, so we use the DCF valuation method, assuming that when the value of WACC is 8.49% 8.99% and g is 1.75% 2.25%, the reasonable market capitalization range of the company is 625.98-72.603 billion yuan, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 252.97-293.40 yuan, which is rated as "better than the market".
Risk hint. Research and development risk, continuous risk of domestic COVID-19 epidemic situation, intensified risk of domestic vaccine market competition, COVID-19 vaccine market demand and competition risk, international market risk and so on.