Shenwan Hongyuan (000166): Consolidation of institutional and trading business advantages; high corporate financial income

中金公司 · Apr 2, 2022 08:32 · Researches

2021 年业绩符合我们预期

申万宏源公布2021 年业绩：营收同比+16.7%至343 亿元，归母净利润同比+21%至94 亿元，ROAE 同比+1.21ppt 至10.26%（公司口径），4Q21 单季度净利润同比+61%/环比-31%至20 亿元，业绩符合我们预期。2021 年调整后业务及管理费同比+0.8ppt 至47.9%，自有资金杠杆率同比+0.8x/环比+0.5x 至5.21x。

发展趋势

机构与交易业务优势巩固。2021 年机构与交易分部收入同比+21%至196 亿元、占比+2ppt 至57%。1）投资收入同比+62%至111 亿元，交易性金融资产同比+66%至2726 亿元，其中债券（+61%）：股票（+198%）：公募基金（+43%）：其他（+59%）=54%:11%:14%:22%，对应收益率持平于4.7%。

2）主经纪商业务方面，席位租赁收入同比+46%至10 亿元，PB 规模同比+16%至2692 亿元。

个人金融业务增速弱于同业。2021 年个人金融业务分部收入同比+7%至97亿元、占比-2ppt 至28%。1）代理买卖业务净收入同比+3%至58.5 亿元（vs.

市场成交额+25.1%），期末客户托管资产规模同比+4.9%至4.38 万亿元。代销金融产品净收入同比+104%至4.5 亿元、占比+3ppt 至6.9%。期货经纪业务净收入同比+53%至7.3 亿元。2）两融利息收入同比+20%至55 亿元，期末余额同比-3%至784 亿元、市占-0.7ppt 至4.3%。股票质押利息收入同比-47%至5.3 亿元，期末表内余额同比-47%至85 亿元、市占-1.6ppt 至3.7%。

企业金融业务大幅增长；投资管理占比有待提升。1）2021 年企业金融业务分部收入同比+59%至36 亿元、占比+3ppt 至10%，其中投资银行和本金投资收入同比分别+47%/+82%至22/14 亿元。股权融资规模同比+26%至346亿元、市占+0.3ppt 至1.96%；债权融资规模同比+39%至2258 亿元、市占+0.3ppt 至1.2%。2）投资管理分部收入同比-24%至15 亿元、占比-2ppt 至4%。基金投顾方面，期末累计签约客户9.5 万人，同比+158%，规模超30亿元（vs.2020 年末11 亿元）。公募方面，申万菱信基金（持股67%）收入/净利润同比+23%/+21%至6.6/1.3 亿元，非货基AUM 同比+45%至693 亿元；富国基金（持股27.775%）收入/利润同比+56%/+55%至83/26 亿元，非货基AUM 同比+51%至6223 亿元。

盈利预测与估值

考虑市场波动对于资本类业务净收入影响，我们下调2022 年盈利4%至102亿元，基本维持2023 年盈利预测。当前A 股股价对应2022/23 年1.07/0.98xP/B。维持中性评级，考虑盈利下调和板块估值回落，我们下调目标价13%至5.3 元目标价，对应1.3/0.6x P/B，较当前股价有19%的上行空间。

风险

交易额大幅萎缩、市场剧烈波动、监管政策不确定性

2021 performance is in line with our expectations

Shenwan Hongyuan announced its 2021 results: revenue from + 16.7% to 34.3 billion yuan, net profit from home + 21% to 9.4 billion yuan, ROAE from + 1.21ppt to 10.26% (company caliber), 4Q21 single-quarter net profit from + 61% / month-on-month-31 to 2 billion yuan, in line with our expectations. In 2021, the adjusted business and management fees are from + 0.8ppt to 47.9%, and the leverage ratio of own funds is from + 0.8x/ to + 0.5x to 5.21x.

Trend of development

The advantages of institutional and trading business are consolidated. Revenue from institutional and trading divisions in 2021 was + 21% to 19.6 billion yuan, accounting for + 2ppt to 57%. 1) Investment income from + 62% to 11.1 billion yuan, and transactional financial assets from + 66% to 272.6 billion yuan, of which bonds (+ 61%): stocks (+ 198%): public funds (+ 43%): others (+ 59%) = 54%, 11%, 14%, 22%, corresponding to the same rate of return of 4.7%.

2) in the main business, seat rental income is + 46% to 1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and PB scale is + 16% to 269.2 billion yuan.

The growth rate of personal financial business is weaker than that of the same industry. In 2021, the income of the personal financial business segment was + 7% to 9.7 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, accounting for-2ppt to 28%. 1) the net income of agency buying and selling business is + 3% to 5.85 billion yuan (vs.

Market turnover + 25.1%), the scale of customer escrow assets at the end of the period was + 4.9% to 4.38 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. Net income from consignment sales of financial products was + 104% to 450 million yuan, accounting for + 3ppt to 6.9%. The net income of futures brokerage business was + 53% to 730 million yuan compared with the same period last year. 2) the interest income of the two financial institutions is + 20% to 5.5 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, the final balance is-3% to 78.4 billion yuan, and the market share is-0.7ppt to 4.3%. The stock pledge interest income is-47% to 530 million yuan compared with the same period last year, the balance at the end of the period is-47% to 8.5 billion yuan, and the market share is-1.6ppt to 3.7%.

Corporate financial business has increased significantly; the proportion of investment management needs to be improved. 1) in 2021, the income of the enterprise financial business segment was + 59% to 3.6 billion yuan, accounting for + 3ppt to 10%, of which investment bank and principal investment income were + 47% to 2.2 billion yuan, respectively. Year-on-year equity financing scale + 26% to 34.6 billion yuan, market share + 0.3ppt to 1.96%; debt financing scale + 39% to 225.8 billion yuan, market share + 0.3ppt to 1.2%. 2) the income of the investment management division is-24% to 1.5 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, accounting for-2ppt to 4%. In terms of fund investment, a total of 95000 clients were signed at the end of the period, + 158% compared with the same period last year, with a scale of more than 3 billion yuan (1.1 billion yuan at the end of vs.2020). In terms of public offering, the income / net profit of ShenWanlingxin Fund (67% shareholding) is + 23% Universe 21% to 666 million yuan, the non-commodity AUM is + 45% to 69.3 billion yuan, the Wells Fargo Fund (27.775%) income / profit is 55% to 83 billion yuan, and the non-base AUM is + 51% to 622.3 billion yuan.

Profit forecast and valuation

Taking into account the impact of market fluctuations on the net income of capital business, we reduce the profit in 2022 by 4% to 10.2 billion yuan, basically maintaining the profit forecast in 2023. The current A share price corresponds to 2022 Compact 23 1.07/0.98xP/B. Maintaining a neutral rating, taking into account earnings downgrades and lower sector valuations, we cut our target price by 13% to 5.3 yuan, corresponding to 1.3max 0.6x Pmax B, which has 19% upside compared to the current share price.

Risk

The trading volume has shrunk sharply, the market fluctuates violently, and the regulatory policy is uncertain.

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申万宏源(000166)：机构与交易业务优势巩固;企业金融收入高增

Shenwan Hongyuan (000166): Consolidation of institutional and trading business advantages; high corporate financial income

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