Event
Event one
In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 530 million yuan, year-on-year + 70.33%, net profit of 118 million yuan, + 98.78%, and non-return net profit of 67 million yuan, + 31.89%, of which Q4 single-quarter operating income was 178 million yuan, year-on-year + 33.58%. The net profit was 38 million yuan, + 118.72%, and 17 million yuan, + 1.45%, respectively.
Event two
In the first quarter of 2022, the company is expected to return to its mother with a net profit of 20-24 million yuan (median 22 million yuan), which is + 150% Lue 200% (median year-on-year + 175%).
Brief comment
Traditional business has grown steadily, and ADT has led to a high increase in semiconductor business performance. ① has benefited from the volume of semiconductor packaging equipment, and the company's performance has achieved rapid growth. In 2021, the company realized operating income of 530 million yuan, an increase of 70.33% over the same period last year. The company's performance growth is mainly due to the volume of semiconductor packaging equipment, and its revenue increased by 199 million yuan, contributing 91.01% of the company's revenue growth, which is the main driving force of the company's revenue growth.
The growth rate of net profit of ② deduction is slower than that of income, and the change of business structure leads to the fluctuation of gross profit margin. The company achieved a net profit of 118 million yuan for the whole year, an increase of 98.78% over the same period last year, while the net profit after deducting non-return was 67 million yuan, an increase of 31.89% over the same period last year. The growth rate of the company's net profit after deducting non-return is weaker than that of revenue: the proportion of semiconductor packaging equipment revenue with a slightly lower gross margin has risen rapidly, causing the company's overall gross profit margin to fall by 9.23pct to 53.41%. In addition, the increase in the rate of sales expenses also partly affects the performance of the company's net profit.
The performance of ③ increased rapidly in the first quarter, and the semiconductor closed test equipment continued to work. The company's 2022Q1 is expected to achieve a net profit of 20-24 million yuan, an increase of 150% over the same period last year.
The main reasons for the rapid growth of the company's performance include: first, the company's semiconductor dicing machine 8230 has continued high growth since 2021Q4, while the overseas layout of Israel ADT tends to be improved; ② ADT has contributed 5 million of its net homed profit; ③ 's traditional main business has benefited from the introduction of new national rules for the prevention of coal and gas outburst, and downstream demand has continued to improve to achieve better sales. The excellent performance in the first quarter lays a good foundation for the company's annual performance.
Internet of things safety production monitoring equipment: steady progress in performance, coal mine intelligence brings new growth opportunities ① performance steadily improved, is still the company's largest source of income. In 2021, the company's safety production and energy-saving monitoring business achieved revenue of 292 million yuan, an increase of 7.15% over the same period last year, accounting for 55.14% of the revenue. The company's safety production and energy-saving monitoring business products include mine safety production monitoring products, electric power safety, energy saving and environmental protection products and special supporting equipment, downstream including coal mine, electric power safety, energy saving and environmental protection and other fields. Thanks to the intelligent transformation of the downstream coal mining industry and the competitive position of the company's industry advantages, this sector has achieved steady growth.
② looks forward to the future, the intelligent transformation of the industry brings long-term upward demand for safety production monitoring equipment. In 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other departments jointly issued the "guidance on speeding up the Intelligent Development of Coal Mine", which called for increasing the intelligent transformation of coal mine, and basically realizing the intelligence of large-scale coal mine and serious disaster coal mine by 2025. Under the trend of intelligence, it is bound to provide more demand for the company's equipment, driving its long-term upward growth.
Semiconductor closed testing equipment: after three overseas mergers and acquisitions, improving the layout of semiconductor precision cutting equipment and core components, ① revenue has grown rapidly, and the share of revenue has increased significantly. The revenue of semiconductor closed test equipment reached 238 million yuan in the whole year, an increase of 518.74% over the same period last year, accounting for 44.86% of the revenue. The main reasons for the high performance of semiconductor closed test equipment in 2021 include: first, the high prosperity of the industry + the domestic trend of semiconductor equipment.
Under the background of chip shortage, wafer factories and closed test plants at home and abroad have stepped up their efforts to expand production. In 2021, the global semiconductor equipment market increased by 45% over the previous year to a record high of US $103 billion, and the market demand for closed test equipment entered a blowout state. The trend of domestic substitution further accelerates the increase of domestic equipment market share; secondly, ADT also thickens the performance of the company. The company further acquired a 79.95% stake in Advanced Microelectronics, and then indirectly held a 94.90% stake in ADT. ADT has been included in the consolidated statement since May 2021, thickening the company's performance; finally, the company's slicing machine into the head of customers to form sales, entered the volume stage.
② 's three overseas mergers and acquisitions have enabled the company to develop semiconductor closed test equipment and core components. The company's current semiconductor closed test equipment business includes wafer cutting and dicing machine, automatic UV ungluing machine, automatic cutting and laminating machine, semi-automatic wafer cleaning machine and other equipment as well as blades and other consumables. The business comes from the company's successive acquisitions of LP, LPB and ADT. LP is the first company in the world to develop semiconductor slicing machine, LPB is master of high-performance and high-precision air spindle, and ADT is the third largest cutting and slicing equipment company in the world. The three are deeply cultivated in the industry for many years, with strong technology, customers and other resources. Thanks to this, the company has also become one of the only two companies in the world that can provide cutting equipment and core parts at the same time, forming a strong synergy.
The space of ③ packaging equipment is broad, and there is much room for improvement in the localization rate. Closed test equipment is an important part of semiconductor equipment. In 2021, the global market space for closed test equipment is about US $15 billion, of which the market in China is about US $4.2 billion. Further split, packaging devices account for about 45-50% of them. If 15% of the value of the dicing machine in the packaging equipment is calculated, the corresponding domestic market space is more than 2 billion yuan, and maintains a rapid growth with the expansion of the industry. In contrast, the current localization rate of packaging equipment, including cutting and slicing, is generally on the low side. As a domestic head cutting equipment supplier, the company will fully benefit from the follow-up industry localization process.
Investment suggestion: in terms of traditional Internet of things safety production equipment, with the gradual progress of domestic coal mine intelligence and other industry policies, the company will continue to maintain steady growth; in semiconductor closed test equipment, the company integrates overseas high-quality assets, benefiting from the high prosperity of the semiconductor equipment industry + domestic substitution wave, is expected to continue high growth and become an important driver of the company's revenue growth. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.81,2.36 and 303 million yuan respectively, an increase of 53.0%, 31.0% and 28.3% respectively over the same period last year, corresponding to a PE of 39.5x, 30.1x and 23.5x respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk factors:
① industry boom downside risk: closed test industry boom exists periodic fluctuations, if the industry boom decline will have a negative impact on the company's product demand.
Increased competition in the ② industry brings the risk of a decline in gross profit margin: if industry competition intensifies further, it may lead to a further decline in gross profit margin.
③ epidemic repeatedly brings the risk of supply chain tension: repeated domestic epidemics may disturb the company's supply chain and affect its normal production and operation.