"it is A shares that have been saved, and they have never said anything about saving Hong Kong stocks. "the old driver looked at the financial information over the weekend and came up with such an answer. The author thinks that it is reasonable to maintain that the risk of Hong Kong stocks at this stage is greater than that of A.
The capital flow of Lugang Tong also shows that the recent increase in the purchase of A-shares by foreign capital still shows that the valuation attractiveness of high-quality Hong Kong stock companies is not as attractive as that of the old A. According to Zhitong Financial APP, in the first month when A shares were included in MSCI, northward funds bought nearly 28.5 billion yuan net, while southward funds bought only bits and pieces every day.
This weekend, the central bank officially released the "rules of the new rules on asset management", mainland A shares led by bank stocks began to scramble to raise funds to rebound, prompting the entire market to become active.
"the market expects that the restrictive provisions in the new rules on asset management will fall sharply and there will be more money flowing into the stock market. Zhang Yanyun, a senior investment adviser at Capital Securities, said that the new rules and regulations on asset management have the greatest impact on financial stocks.
According to the APP of Zhitong Finance, against the background of credit contraction, the people's Bank of China plans to encourage the lending and credit debt investment of commercial banks, and qualified banks can receive liquidity support such as MLF (medium-term Lending facilities). Analysts believe that the central bank's move is intended to further enhance the enthusiasm of banks to lend and invest in credit bonds, and ease the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises in order to defuse credit risks.
The recent trend of Hong Kong stocks completely follows that of mainland A shares. Even if US stocks soar, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks is also weak. The most important thing is that the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly, and some mainland funds investing in Hong Kong stocks are in the context of "deleveraging". On the contrary, some southward funds have withdrawn in the face of intensified trade frictions. So, no matter how strong your Dow or NASDAQ performance, the Hang Seng Index chose a bear market adjustment.
From another point of view, if the mainland A shares are stable, then Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index should also have a "follow the trend" attitude. In the case that the impact of the news side is far greater than the periodic fluctuation, the policy game has been going on.
For example, the mainland official media have recently issued articles to support A-shares, and Xinhua News Agency has issued two articles in succession on July 12. The first article is entitled "A-share valuation is at the bottom of history", and the second article is entitled "A-share valuation shows up in China's capital market." from the perspective of valuation, the trend of foreign investment, and the progress made in the capital market in recent years, the A-share market has been analyzed to support the future of A-share market. Followed by the implementation of some of the policies of the central mother, A shares have been accustomed to this style.
From the author's point of view, the impact of the new regulations on mainland A-shares depends on whether the anti-withdrawal of the A-share market next week is sustainable, especially whether the valuation return of financial blue chips is effective. According to the understanding of Zhitong Financial APP, Chen Yong, an analyst at Lianxun Securities, believes that the continuous adjustment of monetary policy has led to quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which has a positive effect on the market. A series of central bank policies have had a great impact on the market and financial stocks.
What is completely different from the US stock market is that there is a large proportion of technology equity. While the mainland A shares, financial, real estate, energy and other state-owned enterprise stocks account for too much weight in the index, there are certain historical reasons for the poor performance of the index in recent years. But if you want to talk about the expansion of mainland China's A-shares as a whole, it is the world's leading, so the market capitalization scale is still an important indicator to see whether a market is growing or not (including the expansion rate of Hong Kong stocks this year is also a global attention).
The author believes that the core of this round of deep adjustment of A shares and Hong Kong stocks lies in "deleveraging", and the external news has only added fuel to the flames, not the essence of the decline. Now the market is gradually seeing the appearance of deviation correction, of course, there should be an incentive to enter the market for part of the overfall. With more and more southward funds allocated to Hong Kong stocks in recent years, the "A-share transformation of Hong Kong stocks" has become the "normal".
From the market point of view, the news of trade friction, the AH market has gradually begun to show fatigue. The day before yesterday, the press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the impact of the economy still needs to be observed, and China's economy still developed steadily in the first half of the year.
The recent series of policies of the United States are nothing more than allowing those multinational companies to "return to North Korea." however, for many things in the global industrial chain, it does not seem appropriate to rely on temporary policies; another is to crack down on "made in China 2025". Fear of the sudden rise of China's high-tech field in the future.
From a general point of view, the export model that promotes China's economic growth has gradually begun to change. The new driving force comes from five internal aspects: the upgrading of consumption and industries with large consumption; the cultivation of emerging industries; the upgrading of traditional industries; the construction of urban agglomerations, urban agglomerations, and the construction of large metropolitan areas; and there is still great potential for opening up. Especially the opening up of the service industry, so the future investment direction needs to be reorganized, close to the national policy.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey shows that even if the overall fund managers' cash holdings slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7% on a month-on-month basis, the proportion of respondents who said they would increase their holdings dropped significantly, while the proportion of respondents who said they would reduce their holdings in emerging markets was 1 percentage point lower than that of those who said they would increase their holdings. It is a far cry from those who said in June that they would increase their holdings than those who would reduce their holdings.
It shows that when the valuation of the AH market reaches a certain stage, on the contrary, over-the-counter funds have a certain "willingness to enter the market", but the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks is certainly not as attractive as A shares at this stage.The author understands that because the Hang Seng Index soared last year, mainland A shares did not follow the trend, and relatively speaking, the adjustment trend of large-scale high-quality Hong Kong stocks has not changed.
If Hong Kong stocks are informed that A shares are stabilizing next week (this is the major premise), it is believed that some funds will "enter the market to correct deviation" again. If the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks cannot maintain a sustained level of HK $100 billion, the Hang Seng Index will rebound at most.