Main points of investment
Revenue is steadily rising, and profitability has dropped sharply: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 102.6 billion yuan, + 25% year-on-year, and home net profit of 3.8 billion yuan,-70% year-on-year. From the perspective of itemized income: 1) the revenue of the integrated tourism business is 43.3 billion yuan, which is basically the same as that of the previous year; 2) the revenue of the real estate business is 59 billion yuan, + 58% of the same period last year. We believe that the reasons for the sharp decline in the company's return net profit are as follows: 1) under the influence of regulation and control, the company's gross profit margin decreases with the industry trend, and the company's Shenzhen high-margin project is basically carried over, resulting in a 21-year decline in the company's real estate business gross profit margin 38pct to 21%. 2) the company's joint venture investment income and loss of 600 million yuan. 3) according to the prudent principle, the company calculates the asset impairment loss of 2.2 billion yuan, + 149% compared with the same period last year. After adding back the asset impairment loss, the company's net profit is 5 billion yuan, which is-63% of the same period last year.
The sales performance declined slightly, and the land was more cautious: in the past 21 years, the company has accumulated 3.99 million square meters of contracted sales area,-14% year-on-year, contracted sales amount of 82.5 billion yuan,-22% year-on-year, and the average sales price is 20679 yuan / flat,-9% year-on-year. In 21 years, the company added 4.35 million square meters of land capacity,-58% compared with the same period last year. New full-caliber land acquisition amount of 30.3 billion yuan, year-on-year-16%, rights and interests amount of 17.8 billion yuan,-38% year-on-year, equity ratio of 59%, a decrease of 21pct compared with 20 years. In 21 years, the total land storage capacity of the company is 22.51 million square meters, of which first-tier cities account for 5.8%, second-tier cities account for 51.8%, and third-and fourth-tier cities account for 42.5%. With its unique government resources, the company actively practices cooperation between the central and local governments, and cooperates with high-quality enterprises in the industry to reduce land costs and investment risks. of the 23 new pieces of land added in the past 21 years, 15 were acquired at or close to the floor price, with an average floor price of 6960 yuan per square meter. We believe that the company's abundant and high-quality land storage is the basis for the company's future performance improvement, through the unique "tourism + real estate" coordination model, can effectively control land costs, is conducive to the improvement of profit space for follow-up projects.
The cultural tourism project has recovered rapidly, and the profit recovery in the post-epidemic era is expected: in 21 years, the company's cultural tourism industry received a total of 77.98 million tourists, + 82% compared with the same period last year, returning to 150% in 2019. If the 21-year new projects are excluded, the number of people received is + 17% compared with the same period last year, returning to 96% of 2019, and the recovery is far higher than the industry average. Guided by market demand, the company constantly innovates literature and tourism products, and launches a number of new products, such as Shenzhen Happy Harbor "Bay area Light" Ferris wheel, Ningbo Happy Coast and so on, to create new landmarks of local literature and tourism, and constantly improve the competitiveness of the industry. Among them, the "Light of the Bay area" Ferris wheel has a revenue of more than 100 million in only 8 months, breaking the annual revenue record of a single domestic amusement project. We believe that the company, as the leader of the cultural and tourism industry, is expected to take the lead in the repair opportunity with the precision and scientization of epidemic prevention and control measures.
Maintain the financing advantages of central enterprises, financial stability: the company's "three red lines" continue to maintain the green file, through deepening the integration of industry and finance, and actively expand financing channels to achieve a reduction in financing costs. In 21 years, the company used direct financing, bond issuance, equity financing, debt protection plan, supply chain financing and other means to achieve financing of 58.6 billion yuan, with an average financing cost of 4.46%, a decrease of 0.02pct compared with 20 years. The company has abundant liquidity. The company's monetary capital at the end of the 21-year period was 67.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1 billion yuan over the beginning of 2021, accounting for 14% of the total assets and + 12% at the beginning of the period. The company's operating cash flow remains healthy, with 19.2 billion yuan in 21 years, meeting the overall investment and operational needs of the company.
Investment advice: buy. We believe that, as a central enterprise, the company has unique government and industrial resources, the advantage of financing cost is prominent, and the follow-up performance is more flexible after the 21-year profit has been vacated. And change the coach of the former Poly Group General Manager Mr. Zhang Zhengao, the real estate main business is expected to usher in the development of new machines. We estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 40,44,5 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.48,0.53,0.61 yuan, and give the company a double PB valuation in 2022, with a target price of 9.9 yuan, maintaining the "buy rating".
Risk hint: the aggravation of the epidemic affects the repair of cultural travel business income and the progress of the project is not as expected.