Core ideas:
Carry forward high growth, profit margins or tend to stabilize. In 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 107.8 billion yuan, an increase of 50.2% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 7.6 billion yuan, down 5.2% from the same period last year. The overall gross margin fell by 2.5pct to 19.3 per cent as a result of lower profit margins on clearing items. The company's diversified business, such as commerce and long rent, has achieved more than 50% growth during the year. Diversification is the key force circle of the company's benefit orientation, and the growth space is expected. At the end of the year, the cash dividend was 5.7cents per share + HK $0.10 per 100 shares; the total cash dividend for the year was 1.33 billion yuan, accounting for 17.5 per cent of the net profit.
Enter the "green file" for the first time, and the financing channel is smooth. At the end of the period, the company improved from a "yellow" enterprise to a "green" enterprise for the first time, and its credit rating remained stable against the trend, and became one of the few private enterprises to make progress in bond approval. In 22 years, Q1 company issued green dollar bonds of US $150 million and medium-term notes of 1 billion yuan respectively, and signed cooperation agreements with Ping an Bank to obtain a loan line of 5 billion yuan for mergers and acquisitions, thus maintaining strong financing resources against the trend.
Strong sales resilience, replenishment concentrated in first-and second-tier cities. The amount of contract sales reached 247.3 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 7% over the same period last year. In 21 years, top20/top30/top50/top100 sales in the top 100 enterprises recorded a growth rate of-4.1%,-2.6%,-2.1% and-3.2%, respectively. Compared with the top 100, the company showed stronger resilience. The amount of land taken by the company is about 36%, and about 84% of the replenishment resources are located in the core first-and second-tier cities, which may be guaranteed in the future. The unsold reserve at the end of the period is 4020 million square meters, which is expected to meet the sales demand for 2-3 years.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Xuhui Holdings is one of the few private enterprises that have successfully obtained the progress of bond issuance approval; excellent financing operation ability, reasonable bond duration and continuous cultivation of first-and second-tier cities give Xuhui Holdings a more leisurely pace of operation. It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 22-23 years will be 7.77 billion yuan, with a growth rate of-3.2% and 5.4% respectively. The 22-year PE is 4.7X and a "buy" rating is given to PE=7X with an exchange rate of 0.86 and a fair value of HK $6.84 per share.
Risk hint. Sales fell short of expectations and industry policy adjustments fell short of expectations.