Store SaaS continues to push forward, maintaining "buy" rating
The company disclosed its operating income of 1.57 billion yuan in 2021, down 13.8% from the same period last year, with a net loss of 2.51 billion yuan, and a net loss of 295 million yuan in 2020 (we previously expected revenue of 2.414 billion yuan and a net loss of 207 million yuan in 2021). 4Q21's single-quarter operating income was 385 million yuan, down 22.3% from the same period last year. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the EPS will be-0.05, 0.000.00 and 0.01RMB respectively. Segment valuation method: 1) subscription solution: estimated 2022 subscription solution revenue of 1.309 billion yuan, comparable company average 2022E 5.4x PS (Wind), 2022E 5.4x PS, corresponding to HK $0.48 per share; 2) merchant solutions and other businesses: 2022E net profit of 71 million yuan, comparable company average 22e 17.8xPE (Wind), 2022E 17.8xPE, corresponding to HK $0.09 per share. Taking into account the target price of HK $0.56 per share (previous value: HK $1.44 per share), maintain the "buy" rating.
Store SaaS is expected to be the growth driver of subscription solutions
In 2021, the revenue of the like subscription solution was 974 million yuan, down 7.1% from a year earlier to 98.3 billion yuan, down 5.2% from the same period last year. Among them, the GMV growth rate of Kuaishou Technology / non-Kuaishou Technology is-69% and 37% respectively. The SaaS GMV of stores is 27.7 billion yuan, accounting for 28% of the total GMV. The average annual sales of single merchants exceeded 1.1 million yuan, which continued to increase compared with the same period last year. 2021 there were 47686 new customers, and the proportion of SaaS customers in stores reached 32%, an increase of 36 percentage points over the same period last year. At the end of 2021, there were 88395 customers in stock, accounting for 34% of store customers, an increase of 23 percentage points over the same period last year.
With the gradual promotion of Zanxin retail, we believe that the store SaaS may become an important driver of the like subscription solution business.
The service ability of key customers continues to be enhanced.
In 2019, 2020 and 2021, the GMV of a single customer is RMB 780000 / 1.03 million / 1.11 million respectively, and the GMV created by a single customer continues to rise. In addition, the overall ACV (average contract amount) of 2021 companies reached 12666 yuan, up 7% from the same period last year. In 2021, the renewal rates of waist customers / head customers reached 67% and 84% respectively (year-on-year + 2pp/-1pp). According to the company's annual results announcement, Youzan set up a KA sales team in 2021 to provide merchants with new retail solutions. In addition, Youzan has released the ONE strategy to jointly provide online and offline data fusion services with system service providers. In 2021, dozens of service providers have established cooperation through ONE strategy.
Pay attention to the store SaaS, and the service ability of key customers will continue to improve.
The company's store SaaS continues to promote, and the ability to serve major customers continues to improve. Consider the decline in GMV related to e-commerce, as well as the company's continued increase in R & D investment. We downgrade 2022amp 2023amp revenue forecast to RMB3.143 billion (previous value: RMB 3.887) and net profit forecast (RMB140 million) to-8.43 and-1.19 billion (previous value:-1.30 and 1.19 billion).
Risk hint: market competition intensifies, and the process of digital transformation of merchants is slower than expected.
