People's livelihood education (01569.HK): “Internet” +vocational education strategic transformation completed

中金公司 · Apr 1, 2022 10:26 · Researches

2021 年调整后净利润超出我们预期18%

民生教育公布2021 年业绩：收入23.9 亿元，同比增长116%，超出我们的预期9%；调整后归母净利润7.7 亿元，同比增长77%，超出我们的预期18%，主要由于在线业务收入增长超预期。

发展趋势

“互联网”+职业教育战略转型完成。民生教育自2019 年开始积极寻求转型，陆续收购了都学网络、电大在线、小爱科技、民生在线、优慕课等职业教育相关领先教育、科技平台。公司主营业务由校园教育转变为在线教育与校园教育相结合，“互联网+”职业教育的战略转型完成。2021 年公司在线教育及其他教育服务方面实现收入11.4 亿元，占公司总营收的48%，其中远程教育服务实现收入8.0 亿元。公司主要在线教育平台用户数稳步增长：

奥鹏教育为107 万名学生提供远程教育、开放教育，服务学生人数同比增长2.3%；都学网络新增用户60.6 万人，同比增长41.6%；民生在线服务专科及以上学历教育在籍学生15.8 万人，同比增长18.8%。

校园教育2021 年稳步增长，营利性、非营利性登记时间临近。2021 年，公司校园教育实现收入12.5 亿元，同比增长14.1%，其中学费同比增长12%，住宿费同比增长49%。主要源于学生人数增长以及疫情对学费、住宿费退费的影响消退。截至2021 年年底，民生教育在校生总人数101,103人，较去年同期同比增长9%。公司旗下多所学校位于重庆，根据《重庆市民办学校分类登记实施细则》1“现有民办学校应在2022 年9 月1 日之前选择登记为营利性或者非营利性民办学校”，学校营利性、非营利性登记结果及影响有待观察。

盈利能力有所修复，在手现金充足。2021 年，公司毛利率为56.7%，同比增长5.5ppt；我们预计在线平台协同性提升后，盈利能力有望进一步提升。截至2021 年12 月31 日，公司现金、短期投资及银行存款共31.4 亿元，较去年同期增长19.7%；公司带息负债19.8 亿元，同比增长4.1%，我们认为公司现金与负债水平稳定，能够为业务发展提供良好支撑。

盈利预测与估值

考虑到公司在线业务发展超预期，我们分别提升2022 年收入预测9.6%至27.3 亿元，提升2022 年调整后归母净利润预测9.2%至8.4 亿元，引入2023 年收入预测31.1 亿元，调整后归母净利润预测9.5 亿元。维持跑赢行业评级和1.1 港元目标价，对应6 倍2022 年/5 倍2023 年市盈率，较当前股价有34.1%上行空间，当前股价对应4 倍2022 年/3 倍2023 年市盈率。

风险

营利性、非营利性选择推进工作不及预期；政策影响超预期。

The adjusted net profit in 2021 exceeded our expectations by 18%.

Minsheng Education announced its results in 2021: income was 2.39 billion yuan, an increase of 116% over the same period last year, exceeding our expectation of 9%. The adjusted net profit was 770 million yuan, an increase of 77% over the same period last year, which exceeded our forecast of 18%, mainly due to the higher-than-expected growth of online business revenue.

Trend of development

The strategic transformation of "Internet" + vocational education has been completed. Since 2019, Minsheng Education has actively sought transformation and successively acquired leading education and technology platforms related to vocational education, such as Duxue Network, TVU online, Xiaoai Science and Technology, Minsheng online, YouTube, and so on. The company's main business has changed from campus education to the combination of online education and campus education, and the strategic transformation of "Internet +" vocational education has been completed. In 2021, the company achieved 1.14 billion yuan in revenue from online education and other education services, accounting for 48% of the company's total revenue, including 800 million yuan from distance education services. The number of users of the company's main online education platform is growing steadily:

Aopeng Education provided distance education and open education to 1.07 million students, and the number of students served increased by 2.3% over the same period last year. The number of new users of the Duxue network was 606000, an increase of 41.6% over the same period last year. 158000 students were enrolled in Minsheng online service and above, an increase of 18.8%.

Campus education will grow steadily in 2021, and the time for for-profit and non-profit registration is approaching. In 2021, the company's campus education income reached 1.25 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% over the same period last year, of which tuition fees and accommodation fees increased by 12% and 49% respectively. It is mainly due to the increase in the number of students and the fading of the impact of the epidemic on tuition fees and accommodation fees refund. By the end of 2021, the total number of students in livelihood education was 101103, an increase of 9 per cent over the same period last year. A number of schools under the company are located in Chongqing. According to the detailed rules for the implementation of classified Registration of civilian-run Schools in Chongqing 1, existing private schools should choose to register as for-profit or non-profit private schools before September 1, 2022. The results and impact of for-profit and non-profit registration of schools remain to be seen.

Profitability has been repaired, with plenty of cash on hand. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin will be 56.7%, an increase of 5.5 ppt over the same period last year. We expect profitability to further improve with the collaborative improvement of online platforms. As of December 31, 2021, the company's cash, short-term investment and bank deposits totaled 3.14 billion yuan, an increase of 19.7% over the same period last year; the company's interest-bearing liabilities totaled 1.98 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year. We believe that the company's cash and debt levels are stable and can provide good support for business development.

Profit forecast and valuation

Considering that the company's online business development exceeded expectations, we raised the revenue forecast for 2022 to 2.73 billion yuan respectively, raised the adjusted net profit forecast for 2022 to 9.2% to 840 million yuan, introduced the revenue forecast of 3.11 billion yuan for 2023, and the adjusted net profit forecast for home was 950 million yuan. Maintain an outperform industry rating and a target price of HK $1.1, corresponding to 6 times 2022 / 5 times 2023 price-to-earnings ratio, 34.1% upside from current stock price, which corresponds to 4 times 2022 / 3 times 2023 price-earnings ratio.

Risk

The for-profit and non-profit choice promotion work is not as expected, and the policy impact is higher than expected.

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民生教育(01569.HK)：“互联网”+职业教育战略转型完成

People's livelihood education (01569.HK): “Internet” +vocational education strategic transformation completed

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