Report guide
According to the company's 2021 annual report, the total operating income in 2021 is 2.15 million yuan, the net profit is-584 million yuan, and the R & D investment is 393 million yuan, a sustained new high; sales and management expenses have increased significantly, and fixed assets and inventory have increased significantly. It is mainly used for the production and promotion of surgical robots, and the product volume is expected in 2022-24.
Main points of investment
Performance: the total operating income in 2021 is 2.15 million yuan, and the net profit is-5.84.
The company disclosed its 2021 annual report that the total revenue in 2021 was 2.15 million yuan, mainly the sales of dragonfly 3D laparoscopy approved in June 2021; the net profit was-584 million yuan, and the R & D investment was 393 million yuan, and the expenditure continued to be high. It is worth noting that the company's sales expenses in 2021 increased by 2840.5% compared with the same period last year, which is mainly used for market education and sales promotion of surgical robots; the inventory is 110 million yuan, and it is pointed out in the annual report that the inventory is mainly surgical robots and their accessories. and most of the inventory is suitable for sale of mobile goods, product reserves are sufficient. Fixed assets (property, plant and equipment) 361 million yuan, an increase of 832.6%, mainly used for robot production, for mass production preparation. Combined with the above changes, we believe that the company is carrying out product reserve, sales reserve and mass production reserve, and the Tumai endoscopic surgery robot approved in January 2022 and the swan joint replacement robot which is expected to be approved in 2022 are expected to expand quickly.
Multi-product approval drives revenue growth
The endoscopic surgery robot was approved in January 2022, driving the company to have 2.6 billion yuan in revenue in 2026. Frost&sullivan expects the number of endoscopic surgery robots to increase from 189to 2050, CAGR48.8%, from 2020 to 2026. The first generation of Tumai, which is used in urology in January 2022, is listed, and the second generation of Tumai, which covers more departments, is also registered. the company is expected to be approved to market in the first quarter of 2023, and 2023 may be the first year of the company's endoscopic surgery robot. as the only four-arm endoscopic robot approved in China, it is directly calibrated to da Vinci, under the background of policy encouragement and the rapid growth in the number of endoscopic surgery robots, with reference to Leonardo da Vinci's domestic volume rhythm. We assume that the annual installed capacity of the company is growing steadily, the company's market share will reach 18% in 2026, and the celiac robot sector may have an income of 2.6 billion yuan.
Joint replacement robots FDA and NMPA are expected to be approved in 2022, driving the company's revenue of 570 million yuan in 2026. Frost&sullivan predicts that the number of joint replacement robots will increase from 17 to 788 between 2020 and 2026, CAGR189.5%. The company expects that the swan joint replacement robot FDA and NMPA are expected to be approved in 2022, 2022 is the first year of sales, and 2023 is expected to be released. The company's joint replacement robot and its joint implant products have a synergistic effect in the channel, and the commercialization ability is stronger, and the orthopaedic robot plate may have an income of 570 million yuan.
Inventory and fixed assets have increased significantly, and mass production of products is imminent.
Inventory changes from 0 to 110 million yuan, product stock has reached, the first year of sales is worth looking forward to. The company pointed out in its annual report that the inventory is mainly surgical robots and their accessories, and most of the inventory is mobile goods suitable for sale. We believe that the change in inventory shows the company's reserve for product sales. 2022 is the first year of the sale of endoscopic surgery robot and joint replacement robot, and the sales revenue may be worth looking forward to.
Fixed assets increased by 832.6%, mainly used in robot production, mass production can be expected. At the end of 2021, the company's fixed assets (property, plant and equipment) was 361 million yuan, an increase of 832.6% over the same period last year, which was mainly used for robot production. As the only company in the world with the layout of five major specialties (endoscope, orthopaedics, panvascular, transnatural cavity, percutaneous puncture), the company completed the construction of a number of parts production lines and the construction of a 500,000 square meter clean workshop. Make full capacity preparation for mass production and scale sales after products have been put on the market one after another, and mass production can be expected in the future.
The sales cost has increased significantly, which helps to commercialize the products.
The sales cost was 79 million yuan, an increase of 2533% over the same period last year, boosting the commercialization of products. In 2021, the company's sales expenses of 79 million yuan are mainly used for doctor education and employee compensation expenses related to the promotion of surgical robots. In 2022, the company Tumai's first generation endoscopic surgery robots have been approved, and joint replacement robots FDA and NMPA are expected to be approved in the second quarter. We believe that the early sales promotion expenditure will contribute to the commercialization of the company's products after approval.
The equity incentive is 91 million yuan and the management fee is 107 million yuan, which is conducive to the stable development of the company. In 2021, the company built a number of production lines and sales teams, and the management cost increased by 297% compared with the same period last year. Among the staff costs, the equity incentive fee is 91 million yuan, which is conducive to the stable and rapid development of the company.
The R & D cost is 393 million yuan, and the high investment continues. In 2021, the company spent 393 million yuan on R & D, with an expense rate of 183%. We believe that from 2022 to 2030, the company's major products will be commercialized in turn, and there will be a trend of renewal and iteration, and R & D expenses will increase steadily, but with the growth of income, the rate of R & D expenditure will decline steadily and may eventually be maintained at 15%.
Profit forecast and valuation
Based on the above assumptions, we estimate that the total operating income of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 0.66max 5.15 / 1.402 billion yuan, an increase of 2938%, 686% and 172% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit of the parent company is-8.28 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is-0.86 gamble 0.79 Meltel 0.53 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of less than expected product approval and commercialization; the risk of increased competition in the surgical robot industry; the risk of poor iteration of product updates; the risk of poor policy openness or excessive price cuts