Main points of investment
Revenue in 2021 increased by 42% over the same period last year, deducting non-return net profit by 34% year-on-year. For the whole of 2021: the company achieved revenue of 7.2 billion (+ 42%), net profit of 151 million (+ 14%), and non-return net profit of 43 million (+ 34%). The lower growth rate of homed net profit than the growth rate of revenue is mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin, the increase in R & D expenses, and the decrease in income from asset disposal.
2) Gross profit margin: the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 2.73%, down 0.92 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the gross profit margin of trainers increased by 1.9 percentage points, while that of other aviation products decreased by 2.7 percentage points. From the point of view of cost composition: the decrease of gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase of materials and external processing fees, accounting for an increasing proportion of revenue.
3) net interest rate: for the whole of 2021, the company's net interest rate was 2.1%, down 0.54 percentage points from the same period last year. In addition to the decline in gross profit margin, other factors include an increase in R & D costs and a decrease in income from asset disposal.
4) period expenses: the expense rate during 2021 was 0.97%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points compared with the same period last year, in which the rate of management expenses decreased and financial income increased. The rate of R & D expenditure is basically the same as that of the previous year.
The balance sheet side continues to show that the company is full of orders on hand.
In mid-2021, the company harvested a large amount of contract liabilities and transferred large amounts of prepaid accounts to the upper reaches of the industrial chain. At the end of 2021, the company's contractual liabilities (6.9 billion) were basically the same as at the end of the third quarter of 2021, and prepaid accounts (6.7 billion) increased by 32% over the end of the third quarter of 2021. Both indicators remain high, indicating that the company is full of orders on hand.
Related party transactions indicate the rapid growth of the company's business scale in 2022. The company has a high proportion of related sales in revenue, which plays a guiding role in the growth of total revenue. The related sales in 2022 are 68% higher than the actual occurrence in 2021, and the related purchases are 75% higher than the actual occurrence in 2021. Both data indicate that the company's business scale will grow rapidly in 2022.
At present, the minimum market value aviation mainframe, trainer + defense products give birth to the largest variety of medium-and long-term flexibility 1) the company's product teaching 10 is the most advanced trainer in China, and the key to the implementation of the new coaching system of "two machines and three levels". Enjoy the double benefits of "industry growth + share increase". Defense products rely on the only air-to-surface missile research institute in the aviation industry, and are doubly driven by "the installation of new fighter aircraft plus increased consumption of actual combat training", so the demand is even more urgent. The revenue growth rate may surpass that of other aviation mainframes in the future, the superimposed profit margin will increase and the performance will be flexible.
Profit forecast and valuation: the compound growth rate of net profit in the next 3 years is expected to exceed 50%. The company's net profit in 2022-2024 is estimated to be RMB 2.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51%, 55%, and 47%. The EPS is 0.32, 0.50, 0.73, PE, and 1.9, respectively. PS is 1.4 and 1.1 times. Maintain the "buy" rating, taking into account the high flexibility and historical PS hub of future performance growth.
Risk hint: product delivery is not as expected; product volume scale effect is not as expected.