Core views:
The company released its 2021 annual report: For the whole year, the company achieved revenue of 4.3 billion yuan, net profit of 1,914 million yuan, and net profit of non-return to the mother of the mother 1,797 million yuan, of which the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 1,214 million yuan, net profit of 580 million yuan, and net profit of 522 million yuan after deducting non-return to the mother. The company's gross margin and net profit margin for the year were 69.85% and 44.35% respectively. R&D investment and sales expenses were 905 million yuan and 106 million yuan respectively, accounting for 21.05% and 2.46% of revenue respectively.
The recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine has been marketed in many countries at home and abroad, and MCV2 and MCV4 will be commercialized this year. The company's COVID-19 vaccine, Kewisa, has obtained emergency use authorization/conditional listing in many countries at home and abroad, achieving total revenue of 4.3 billion yuan in 2021 (1,243 billion yuan domestically and 3,057 billion yuan overseas). At present, the company's inhaled COVID-19 vaccine has completed phase I/II clinical trials, and it is expected that it will be used urgently in the future as an important supplement to strengthen immunity. Furthermore, the company MCV2 and MCV4 obtained drug registration certificates in June and December 21, respectively. Commercialization began this year, and the company and Pfizer will cooperate to develop the market.
The company has a rich R&D pipeline and has begun to lay out mRNA technology platforms. The company's R&D pipeline includes many vaccine varieties with high clinical demand, such as meningitis, DPS, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and shingles. Among them, the 13-valent pneumonia-conjugated vaccine is in clinical phase 3. The components of the DPT vaccine have all completed clinical phase 1, PBPV has completed clinical phase Ia trials, and the tuberculosis booster vaccine has completed clinical phase Ib trials. The company has begun research and development to lay out an mRNA vaccine technology platform, and research projects targeting COVID-19 are currently being studied in the pre-clinical stage.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. We expect the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be 1,915 billion yuan, 1,863 billion yuan, and 1,550 billion yuan respectively. Comparing the commercial value of the company's PE in '22 and the company's own R&D pipeline, the reasonable value of the company's A shares is about $270.92 per share (PE35X in '22), and the reasonable value of H shares is about HK$238.91 per share (PE25X in '22, HK$1 = RMB 0.81), giving A and H shares a purchase rating.
Risk warning. Vaccine development progress has fallen short of expectations; COVID-19 vaccine sales have fallen short of expectations, etc.