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碧桂园服务(6098.HK):内生外拓双轮驱动 增值服务高速增长

Country Garden Service (6098.HK): Rapid growth in endogenous and external dual-wheel drive value-added services

西南證券 ·  Mar 30, 2022 14:51  · Researches

Main points of investment

Business performance improved and grew at a high speed. In 2021, the company realized revenue of 28.84 billion yuan (+ 84.9%) and net profit of 4.03 billion yuan (+ 50.2%). The company's asset-liability ratio is 42.6%, down 5.6pp from 48.2% in 2020. The company's gross profit margin fell by 3.3pp to 30.7% in 2021, mainly due to the government's abolition of social security relief, the company's increased investment in infrastructure, and the increase in the proportion of urban services with low gross margins.

The scale of property management services is growing rapidly, and the proportion of third-party projects continues to increase. In 2021, the income of property management services was 13.79 billion yuan, an increase of about 60.3% over the same period last year. In addition to the "three supplies and one industry" business, the company has a contract area of 1.44 billion square meters and a management area of 770 million square meters. The reserve area contributed by third-party developers has increased year by year, and the company has adopted a variety of means, such as brand extension, acquisition and mergers and acquisitions. 93% of the new reserve area of 230 million square meters in 2021 came from third-party developers. By the end of the year, the third-party managed area reached 420 million square meters, accounting for 55% from 27%. The area under management in first-and second-tier cities has reached 360 million square meters, accounting for 47 per cent of the total. The company's brand advantage helps to expand the project, and the bid winning rate in 2021 is more than 50%, which is much higher than the industry average.

The six major businesses of community value-added services have developed together to create complete ecological services. The company's income from community value-added services reached 3.33 billion yuan, an increase of 92.2% over the same period last year. The company builds a leading local life service platform around "goods to the home" and "service to the home", and establishes a "terminal + partner" community model. The "downstairs series" is expected to open more than 1000 points in 2022. The number of self-operated media points in community media business has exceeded 500000, covering more than 260 cities across the country, and export through the "Garden Link" SaaS platform. The company uses Phoenix Club APP to achieve online life services, with a total of 10.14 million registered users and 2.25 million monthly active users. In 2021, the number of platform users exceeded 1 million for the first time, an increase of 51% over the same period last year, and the total transaction volume of the platform exceeded 2.1 billion yuan.

The city service officially implements the corporatization operation, and the commercial operation develops in a full format. The revenue from urban services was 4.53 billion yuan, an increase of 412% over the same period last year, accounting for 15.7% of the total revenue, an increase in 10pp over 2020. The company's urban service focuses on the five core tracks of municipal, space operation, industrial park, campus and hospital, and has released product systems including urban intelligent global parking, industrial park operation services and so on. Full-format development of commercial operation, to create a diversified business ecosystem that integrates shopping malls, commercial blocks, community commerce, professional markets and so on. By the end of 2021, there are more than 100 service items and a construction area of more than 5 million square meters.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the company's homing net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 44.2%. In view of the rapid growth of the company's management scale and the strong expansion of value-added services, the company will maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: completion delivery is lower than expected, sales and rebates are lower than expected, and diversified expansion is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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